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Ingolstadt vs Rot-Weiss Essen

Ingolstadt vs Rot-Weiss Essen 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

3. Liga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)

Smash-and-grab

Ingolstadt won with less than half the chances

Ingolstadt

1–0

Rot-Weiss Essen

1.2Chances (xG)2.6

On these chances Ingolstadt would usually take 0.6 points and Rot-Weiss Essen 2.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Rot-Weiss Essen.

Ingolstadt +2.4 pts vs chancesRot-Weiss Essen −2.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Ingolstadt vs Rot-Weiss Essen stats: how the match was played

3. Liga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Rot-Weiss Essen had more than twice the shots on target

Ingolstadt

Rot-Weiss Essen

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

38%

Possession

62%

The match between Ingolstadt and Rot-Weiss Essen ended 1-0. Our AI model predicted an Rot-Weiss Essen win at 44% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Havelse – Ingolstadt prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Ingolstadt vs Rot-Weiss Essen — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · 3. Liga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rot-Weiss Essen to win

Wrong

Our model 44%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,603 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.4% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 64%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 65%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,103 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 947 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.9%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Rot-Weiss Essen ahead at half-time.

Our model 38%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 1,205 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.0% than to our 35–40%.

Ingolstadt Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ingolstadt 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 60%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,456 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Rot-Weiss Essen Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rot-Weiss Essen 2+ goals

Wrong

Our model 51%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 1,023 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 59.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Ingolstadt vs Rot-Weiss Essen 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Ingolstadt vs Rot-Weiss Essen. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

3. Liga - Germany

Ingolstadt1

Rot-Weiss Essen0

Winner

X2 68%

BTTS*

Yes 64%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 65%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 51%

· FT

3. Liga - Germany

Ingolstadt1

Rot-Weiss Essen0

Winner

X2 68%

BTTS*

Yes 64%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 65%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 51%

Full Time

132%

X24%

244%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	16%	84%	35%	65%	49%	51%	74%	26%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	16%	84%	35%	65%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	49%	51%	74%	26%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	31%	69%	60%	40%	83%	17%	93%	7%
	23%	77%	50%	50%	74%	26%	89%	11%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	31%	69%	60%	40%
	23%	77%	50%	50%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	83%	17%	93%	7%
	74%	26%	89%	11%

1st Half

126%

X38%

236%

1st Score

144%

X4%

252%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

27%

1-1

19%

X-2

14%

X-X

13%

X-1

11%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

9.7%

1-2

9.0%

2-1

7.7%

2-2

7.1%

0-1

6.3%

0-2

5.5%

1-0

5.4%

1-3

5.2%

0-0

4.5%

0-3

4.0%

2-0

4.0%

2-3

3.9%

3-1

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Ingolstadt vs Rot-Weiss Essen — Recent Form

Ingolstadt have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 6th in the table. Rot-Weiss Essen have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table.

Last 5 matches

Ingolstadt

Rot-Weiss Essen

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Ingolstadt

1/5

Rot-Weiss Essen

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Ingolstadt

2/5

Rot-Weiss Essen

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Ingolstadt

4/5

Rot-Weiss Essen

1/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Ingolstadt

4/5

Rot-Weiss Essen

4/5

First Half Result

Ingolstadt

4/5

Rot-Weiss Essen

2/5

Correct Score

Ingolstadt

0/5

Rot-Weiss Essen

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Havelse – Ingolstadt prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).