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Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix

Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

A-League Men - Season 2025/2026 (Round 1)

Fair result

Perth Glory

2–2

Wellington Phoenix

1.4Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Perth Glory would usually take 1.5 points and Wellington Phoenix 1.3; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Perth Glory.

Perth Glory −0.5 pts vs chancesWellington Phoenix −0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix stats: how the match was played

A-League Men

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Perth Glory

Wellington Phoenix

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

29%

Possession

71%

The match between Perth Glory and Wellington Phoenix ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted a Perth Glory win at 39% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Wellington Phoenix – Central Coast Mariners prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · A-League Men

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Perth Glory to win

Wrong

Our model 39%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 2,100 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 63%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,461 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 65%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 3,090 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 59%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 942 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 60.0%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Perth Glory ahead at half-time.

Our model 42%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 2,220 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Perth Glory Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Perth Glory 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Perth Glory 2+ goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.9% than to our 55–60%.

Wellington Phoenix Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Wellington Phoenix 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 55%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 1,010 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.3%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

A-League Men - Australia

Perth Glory2

Wellington Phoenix2

Winner

12 77%

BTTS*

Yes 63%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 65%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 52%

· FT

A-League Men - Australia

Perth Glory2

Wellington Phoenix2

Winner

12 77%

BTTS*

Yes 63%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 65%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 52%

Full Time

139%

X23%

238%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	17%	83%	35%	65%	48%	52%	74%	26%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	17%	83%	35%	65%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	48%	52%	74%	26%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	26%	74%	55%	45%	78%	22%	92%	8%
	27%	73%	55%	45%	78%	22%	91%	9%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	26%	74%	55%	45%
	27%	73%	55%	45%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	78%	22%	92%	8%
	78%	22%	91%	9%

1st Half

132%

X42%

226%

1st Score

149%

X4%

247%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

23%

2-2

20%

X-X

16%

X-1

15%

X-2

12%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

9.6%

2-1

8.4%

1-2

8.4%

1-0

6.8%

2-2

6.8%

0-1

5.7%

2-0

4.7%

3-1

4.5%

1-3

4.4%

0-2

4.3%

0-0

4.3%

3-2

3.8%

0-3

3.3%

2-3

3.3%

3-0

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Wellington Phoenix – Central Coast Mariners prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).