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  4. Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli

Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

2. Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 2)

Fair result
Holstein KielHolstein Kiel

2–2

St. PauliSt. Pauli
1.8Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances Holstein Kiel would usually take 1.5 points and St. Pauli 1.3; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: St. Pauli.

Holstein Kiel −0.5 pts vs chancesSt. Pauli −0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli stats: how the match was played

2. Bundesliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Holstein Kiel

St. Pauli

6

Shots on target

6

3

Big chances

5

5

Corners

5

3

Yellow cards

3

65%

Possession

35%

The match between Holstein Kiel and St. Pauli ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted a Holstein Kiel win at 50% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Darmstadt 98 – St. Pauli prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · 2. Bundesliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Holstein Kiel to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: St. Pauli to win.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 112 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 26.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.6% than to our 50–55%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,722 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,327 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 66%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,982 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 40%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,047 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Holstein Kiel Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Holstein Kiel 2+ goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Holstein Kiel 0–1 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 1,871 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

St. Pauli Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

St. Pauli 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 70%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,279 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
2. Bundesliga - Germany
Holstein KielHolstein Kiel2
St. PauliSt. Pauli2

Winner

1 50%

BTTS*

Yes 58%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

Full Time

150%
X25%
225%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT21%79%44%56%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT56%44%80%20%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Holstein Kiel20%80%49%51%
St. Pauli37%63%70%30%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Holstein Kiel75%25%90%10%
St. Pauli89%11%97%3%

1st Half

137%
X40%
223%

1st Score

156%
X6%
238%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

30%

X-1

16%

X-X

15%

2-2

15%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.4%

2-1

9.7%

1-0

9.1%

2-0

8.0%

1-2

6.7%

0-1

6.0%

0-0

5.8%

2-2

5.8%

3-1

5.5%

3-0

4.8%

3-2

3.6%

0-2

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Darmstadt 98 – St. Pauli prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

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