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  4. Osnabrück vs Hertha BSC

Osnabrück vs Hertha BSC 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

2. Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 5)

Fair result
OsnabrückOsnabrück

1–3

Hertha BSCHertha BSC
1.6Chances (xG)2.6

On these chances Osnabrück would usually take 0.9 points and Hertha BSC 1.9; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Hertha BSC.

Osnabrück −0.9 pts vs chancesHertha BSC +1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Osnabrück vs Hertha BSC stats: how the match was played

2. Bundesliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Osnabrück

Hertha BSC

7

Shots on target

7

2

Big chances

6

4

Corners

5

2

Yellow cards

2

43%

Possession

57%

The match between Osnabrück and Hertha BSC ended 1-3. Our AI model correctly predicted an Hertha BSC win with 55% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: DSC Arminia Bielefeld – Osnabrück prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Osnabrück vs Hertha BSC — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · 2. Bundesliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hertha BSC to win

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hertha BSC ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.

Our model 47%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 531 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.

Osnabrück Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Osnabrück 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 69%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Hertha BSC Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hertha BSC 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 1,616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Osnabrück vs Hertha BSC 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Osnabrück vs Hertha BSC. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
2. Bundesliga - Germany
OsnabrückOsnabrück1
Hertha BSCHertha BSC3

Winner

2 55%

BTTS*

Yes 62%

Correct Score

1-2 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 66%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 55%

Full Time

124%
X21%
255%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT16%84%34%66%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT46%55%71%29%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Osnabrück40%60%69%31%
Hertha BSC17%83%41%59%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Osnabrück88%12%96%4%
Hertha BSC66%34%83%17%

1st Half

119%
X34%
247%

1st Score

133%
X4%
263%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

41%

X-2

16%

X-X

11%

1-1

10%

X-1

6%

1-2

5%

2-X

5%

1-X

4%

2-1

1%

Correct Score

1-2

9.1%

1-1

9.0%

0-1

7.1%

0-2

6.9%

1-3

6.5%

2-2

6.1%

2-1

5.6%

0-3

5.1%

1-0

4.4%

2-3

4.2%

0-0

4.1%

2-0

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: DSC Arminia Bielefeld – Osnabrück prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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