Hard to break
2/10FC Bayern München conceded first in only 2 of their last 10 (league 48%).
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FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)
Goal-fest alert
More goals than usual expected in FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München
3.9goals expected · Bundesliga average 3.3
Since July 2025, games with an alert like this averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bookmakers: over 2.5 goals 81%
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München score prediction
Bundesliga
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert3.9 goals expected
3.9 goals in total: more goals than a typical Bundesliga game (average 3.3).
goals expected
FSV Mainz 051.4FC Bayern München2.5Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Bundesliga
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
FC Bayern München to win
Our model 65%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.5% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 53%Bookmakers 72%
Our track record
In 6,479 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 60%Bookmakers 81%
Our track record
In 5,302 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 61%Bookmakers 37%
Our track record
In 257 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 47.1% than to our 60–65%.
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
FC Bayern München ahead at half-time
Our model 46%Bookmakers 53%
Our track record
In 4,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.4% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
FSV Mainz 05 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
FSV Mainz 05 0–1 goals
Our model 79%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 829 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).
FC Bayern München Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
FC Bayern München 2+ goals
Our model 63%Bookmakers 79%
Our track record
In 2,639 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
FSV Mainz 05–
FC Bayern München–Winner
2 65%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
0-2 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
FSV Mainz 05–FC Bayern München–Winner
2 65%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
0-2 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
Full Time
115%
X20%
265%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 20% | 80% | 40% | 60% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 51% | 49% | 73% | 27% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52% | 48% | 79% | 21% |
| 14% | 86% | 37% | 63% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
| 63% | 37% | 82% | 18% |
1st Half
120%
X34%
246%
1st Score
133%
X6%
261%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
43%
X-2
15%
1-1
11%
X-X
11%
X-1
7%
1-2
5%
1-X
4%
2-X
4%
2-1
1%
Correct Score
0-2
10.7%
0-1
10.5%
1-2
9.0%
1-1
7.9%
0-3
7.1%
1-3
6.0%
0-0
5.8%
2-2
4.3%
1-0
4.0%
2-3
3.8%
2-1
3.7%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München: the stats that stand out
Bundesliga
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%FC Bayern München: hard to break · FSV Mainz 05: brick wall
2/10Brick wall
4/10FSV Mainz 05 kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 21%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München: attack vs defence
Bundesliga
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Bundesliga teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- FSV Mainz 05: good attack, weak defence (1.93 xG, 1.67 xGA a game)
- FC Bayern München: good attack, good defence (2.62 xG, 1.02 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München form and luck check
Bundesliga
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Bundesliga gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- FSV Mainz 05Bookmakers: 16% to win today.−0.7
- FC Bayern MünchenBookmakers: 68% to win today.−2.6
Last 5 matches
FC Bayern MünchenW
W
D
W
W
FSV Mainz 05L
W
L
W
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: FSV Mainz 05 7th of 18 · FC Bayern München 1st of 18
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 18 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Bundesliga
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Bundesliga gamesBTTS = both teams scoredFSV Mainz 05 and FC Bayern München games both go over 2.5 goals more often than the Bundesliga average (66%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 66%
FSV Mainz 057 of 10
FC Bayern München8 of 10
BTTSleague 63%
FSV Mainz 056 of 10
FC Bayern München7 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 297 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München corners, cards and goal times
Bundesliga
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 5.0
- Cards: league 1.9
- Goals before half-time: league 43%
- Goals after 75': league 26%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
FC Bayern München4/5
FSV Mainz 053/5
Both Teams to Score
FC Bayern München5/5
FSV Mainz 054/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
FC Bayern München5/5
FSV Mainz 054/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
FC Bayern München2/5
FSV Mainz 051/5
First Half Result
FC Bayern München4/5
FSV Mainz 052/5
Correct Score
FC Bayern München1/5
FSV Mainz 050/5
correct predictionwrong prediction