Banker as favourites
7/7SC Freiburg won 7 of 7 as favourites (league 56%).
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Elversberg vs SC Freiburg Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)
Riding their luck
Elversberg are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+6points more than their chances usually bring in their last 9 with xG
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games. SC Freiburg are also ahead of their chances: about +4 points.
Bookmakers: Elversberg 29% to winSC Freiburg 47%
Elversberg vs SC Freiburg score prediction
Bundesliga
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
3.2 goals in total, a little under the Bundesliga average of 3.3.
goals expected
Elversberg1.6SC Freiburg1.6Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Elversberg vs SC Freiburg: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Elversberg vs SC Freiburg — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Bundesliga
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Elversberg to win
Our model 44%Bookmakers 29%
Our track record
In 1,073 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 29.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.2% than to our 40–45%.
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 66%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 414 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.1% of the time (bookmakers said 65.6%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 65%Bookmakers 61%
Our track record
In 1,170 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 56%Bookmakers 61%
Our track record
In 946 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.7%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 39%Bookmakers 37%
Our track record
In 1,941 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 41.0% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Elversberg Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Elversberg 2+ goals
Our model 51%Bookmakers 42%
Our track record
In 1,898 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 40.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.5% than to our 50–55%.
SC Freiburg Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
SC Freiburg 0–1 goals
Our model 59%Bookmakers 44%
Our track record
In 679 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Elversberg vs SC Freiburg — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Elversberg vs SC Freiburg. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Elversberg–
SC Freiburg–Winner
1X 67%
BTTS*
Yes 66%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 54%
Elversberg–SC Freiburg–Winner
1X 67%
BTTS*
Yes 66%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 54%
Full Time
144%
X23%
233%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 15% | 85% | 35% | 65% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 46% | 54% | 72% | 28% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21% | 79% | 49% | 51% |
| 30% | 70% | 59% | 41% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74% | 26% | 89% | 11% |
| 81% | 19% | 93% | 7% |
1st Half
135%
X39%
226%
1st Score
156%
X4%
240%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
26%
2-2
18%
X-1
14%
X-X
13%
X-2
10%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
9.9%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
7.6%
2-2
7.1%
1-0
6.4%
2-0
5.5%
0-1
5.3%
3-1
5.2%
3-2
4.2%
0-2
4.0%
1-3
3.8%
0-0
3.6%
2-3
3.6%
3-0
3.5%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Elversberg vs SC Freiburg: the stats that stand out
Bundesliga
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%SC Freiburg: banker as favourites, always on the scoresheet and fast starters
7/7Always on the scoresheet
0/10SC Freiburg scored in all of their last 10 (league 21% fail to score).
Fast starters
7/10SC Freiburg scored first in 7 of their last 10 (league 48%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Elversberg vs SC Freiburg: attack vs defence
Bundesliga
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Bundesliga teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Elversberg: weak attack, weak defence (1.23 xG, 2.01 xGA a game)
- SC Freiburg: weak attack, good defence (1.63 xG, 1.08 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Elversberg vs SC Freiburg form and luck check
Bundesliga
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Bundesliga gamesBoth sides are winning more than their chances suggest
- ElversbergBookmakers: 29% to win today. · 9 of 10 gamesClinical · +6 goals+6.4
- SC FreiburgBookmakers: 47% to win today.Clinical · +6 goals+4.2
Last 5 matches
SC FreiburgW
W
L
L
W
ElversbergL
W
L
W
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Elversberg 15th of 18 · SC Freiburg 7th of 18
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 18 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Elversberg vs SC Freiburg: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Bundesliga
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averageup to 10 recent Bundesliga gamesBTTS = both teams scoredElversberg and SC Freiburg games both go over 2.5 goals more often than the Bundesliga average (66%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 66%
Elversberg7 of 9
SC Freiburg8 of 10
BTTSleague 63%
Elversberg6 of 9
SC Freiburg7 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 297 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Elversberg vs SC Freiburg corners, cards and goal times
Bundesliga
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 5.0
- Cards: league 1.9
- Goals before half-time: league 42%
- Goals after 75': league 26%
Corners and cards for every league: League stats →
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
SC Freiburg4/5
Elversberg3/5
Both Teams to Score
SC Freiburg4/5
Elversberg2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
SC Freiburg4/5
Elversberg4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
SC Freiburg4/5
Elversberg2/5
First Half Result
SC Freiburg2/5
Elversberg0/5
Correct Score
SC Freiburg0/5
Elversberg0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction