Shot-shy
6/9Schalke 04 failed to score in 6 of their last 9 (league 21%).
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Paderborn vs Schalke 04 Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)
Wasteful
Schalke 04 are scoring fewer goals than their chances (xG) usually bring
−5goals fewer than their chances (xG) in their last 9 with xG
77% of teams scoring this many fewer goals than their chances scored more in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Schalke 04 32% to winPaderborn 40%
Paderborn vs Schalke 04 score prediction
Bundesliga
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Paderborn expected to create clearly more
2.8 goals in total: fewer goals than usual (the Bundesliga average is 3.3).
goals expected
Paderborn1.7Schalke 041.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Paderborn vs Schalke 04: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Paderborn vs Schalke 04 — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Bundesliga
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Paderborn to win
Our model 42%Bookmakers 40%
Our track record
In 3,613 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 63%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 2,493 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.0% of the time (bookmakers said 61.8%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 63%Bookmakers 53%
Our track record
In 3,106 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 59%Bookmakers 71%
Our track record
In 946 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.7%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 37%Bookmakers 43%
Our track record
In 1,941 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 41.0% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Paderborn Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Paderborn 0–1 goals
Our model 53%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 2,796 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.5% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).
Schalke 04 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Schalke 04 0–1 goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 1,580 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.9% of the time (bookmakers said 60.9%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Paderborn vs Schalke 04 — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Paderborn vs Schalke 04. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Paderborn–
Schalke 04–Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 51%
Paderborn–Schalke 04–Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 51%
Full Time
142%
X23%
235%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 17% | 83% | 37% | 63% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 49% | 51% | 74% | 26% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | 75% | 53% | 47% |
| 29% | 71% | 58% | 42% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 23% | 91% | 9% |
| 81% | 19% | 93% | 7% |
1st Half
135%
X37%
229%
1st Score
149%
X4%
247%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
27%
2-2
20%
X-X
14%
X-1
12%
X-2
11%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
4%
1-2
3%
Correct Score
1-1
9.9%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
7.7%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.2%
2-0
5.3%
3-1
4.7%
0-2
4.6%
0-0
4.3%
3-2
4.2%
1-3
4.0%
2-3
3.3%
3-0
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Paderborn vs Schalke 04: the stats that stand out
Bundesliga
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Schalke 04: shot-shy and slow starters
6/9Slow starters
1/9Schalke 04 scored first in only 1 of their last 9 (league 48%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Paderborn vs Schalke 04: attack vs defence
Bundesliga
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Bundesliga teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Paderborn: weak attack, weak defence (1.39 xG, 1.77 xGA a game)
- Schalke 04: weak attack, weak defence (1.12 xG, 1.99 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Paderborn vs Schalke 04 form and luck check
Bundesliga
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Bundesliga gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- PaderbornBookmakers: 40% to win today. · 9 of 10 gamesWasteful · −5 goals+1.0
- Schalke 04Bookmakers: 32% to win today. · 9 of 10 gamesWasteful · −5 goals−0.7
Last 5 matches
PaderbornD
D
W
D
L
Schalke 04L
L
D
L
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Paderborn 13th of 18 · Schalke 04 16th of 18
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 18 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Paderborn vs Schalke 04: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Bundesliga
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averageup to 10 recent Bundesliga gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Paderborn and Schalke 04 games less often than the Bundesliga average (63%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 66%
Paderborn4 of 9
Schalke 044 of 9
BTTSleague 63%
Paderborn3 of 9
Schalke 043 of 9
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 297 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Paderborn vs Schalke 04 corners, cards and goal times
Bundesliga
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 5.0
- Cards: league 1.9
- Goals before half-time: league 42%
- Goals after 75': league 26%
Corners and cards for every league: League stats →
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Schalke 043/5
Paderborn2/5
Both Teams to Score
Schalke 042/5
Paderborn2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Schalke 042/5
Paderborn3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Schalke 045/5
Paderborn3/5
First Half Result
Schalke 042/5
Paderborn2/5
Correct Score
Schalke 040/5
Paderborn0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction