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Elversberg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3-2 Score & Prediction Review

Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 1)

Smash-and-grab

Elversberg won with fewer chances than Bayer 04 Leverkusen

ElversbergElversberg

3–2

Bayer 04 LeverkusenBayer 04 Leverkusen
1.3Chances (xG)2.2

On these chances Elversberg would usually take 0.8 points and Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Bayer 04 Leverkusen.

Elversberg +2.2 pts vs chancesBayer 04 Leverkusen −2.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Elversberg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen stats: how the match was played

Bundesliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Elversberg had clearly more shots on target

Elversberg

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

6

Shots on target

4

2

Big chances

6

4

Corners

3

3

Yellow cards

2

34%

Possession

67%

The match between Elversberg and Bayer 04 Leverkusen ended 3-2. Our AI model predicted an Bayer 04 Leverkusen win at 38% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bayer 04 Leverkusen – SC Freiburg prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Elversberg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Bundesliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win

Wrong
Our model 38%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 2,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 60%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Bayer 04 Leverkusen ahead at half-time.

Our model 38%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 1,233 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.

Elversberg Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Elversberg 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Bayer 04 Leverkusen Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2+ goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 632 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.7% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Elversberg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Elversberg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Bundesliga - Germany
ElversbergElversberg3
Bayer 04 LeverkusenBayer 04 Leverkusen2

Winner

12 75%

BTTS*

Yes 63%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 50%

Full Time

137%
X25%
238%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT17%83%38%62%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT50%50%75%25%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Elversberg26%74%56%44%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen26%74%56%44%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Elversberg79%21%92%8%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen79%21%92%8%

1st Half

133%
X38%
229%

1st Score

150%
X5%
246%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

2-2

21%

X-X

16%

X-1

12%

X-2

11%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

10.9%

2-1

8.2%

1-2

8.1%

2-2

7.0%

1-0

6.3%

0-1

6.1%

0-2

5.0%

2-0

4.9%

0-0

4.7%

1-3

4.2%

3-1

4.1%

2-3

3.6%

3-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bayer 04 Leverkusen – SC Freiburg prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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