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Paderborn vs SC Freiburg 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 2)

Fair result
PaderbornPaderborn

0–1

SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
1.1Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Paderborn would usually take 1.2 points and SC Freiburg 1.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: SC Freiburg.

Paderborn −1.2 pts vs chancesSC Freiburg +1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Paderborn vs SC Freiburg stats: how the match was played

Bundesliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

SC Freiburg had clearly more shots on target

Paderborn

SC Freiburg

3

Shots on target

5

0

Big chances

1

5

Corners

4

3

Yellow cards

3

60%

Possession

41%

The match between Paderborn and SC Freiburg ended 0-1. Our AI model predicted a Paderborn win at 38% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bayer 04 Leverkusen – SC Freiburg prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Paderborn vs SC Freiburg — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Bundesliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Paderborn to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: SC Freiburg to win.

Our model 38%Bookmakers 25%

Our track record

In 1,528 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 65%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 64%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 40%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 2,043 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Paderborn Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Paderborn 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

SC Freiburg Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

SC Freiburg 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: SC Freiburg 2+ goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 632 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.7% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Paderborn vs SC Freiburg 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Paderborn vs SC Freiburg. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Bundesliga - Germany
PaderbornPaderborn0
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg1

Winner

12 76%

BTTS*

Yes 65%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 51%

Full Time

138%
X24%
238%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT17%83%36%64%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT49%51%74%26%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Paderborn26%74%55%45%
SC Freiburg26%74%55%45%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Paderborn79%21%92%8%
SC Freiburg79%21%92%8%

1st Half

129%
X40%
231%

1st Score

146%
X4%
250%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

23%

2-2

22%

X-X

15%

X-1

14%

X-2

10%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

10.2%

2-1

8.7%

1-2

8.2%

2-2

7.0%

1-0

6.1%

0-1

6.0%

0-2

4.8%

2-0

4.8%

0-0

4.5%

3-1

4.4%

1-3

4.4%

2-3

3.8%

3-2

3.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bayer 04 Leverkusen – SC Freiburg prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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