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Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 0-5 Score & Prediction Review
Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 2)
Hamburger SV0–5
FSV Mainz 05On these chances Hamburger SV would usually take 0.5 points and FSV Mainz 05 2.3; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: FSV Mainz 05.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 stats: how the match was played
Bundesliga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
FSV Mainz 05 had more than twice the shots on target
Hamburger SV
FSV Mainz 05
1
Shots on target
8
0
Big chances
5
4
Corners
5
1
Yellow cards
3
55%
Possession
45%
Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Bundesliga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
FSV Mainz 05 to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
WrongOur track record
In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
Our model’s pick
FSV Mainz 05 ahead at half-time
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Hamburger SV 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Our model’s pick
FSV Mainz 05 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 0-5 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Hamburger SV0
FSV Mainz 055Winner
X2 68%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 50%
Hamburger SV0FSV Mainz 055Winner
X2 68%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 50%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 18% | 82% | 38% | 62% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 50% | 50% | 76% | 24% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32% | 68% | 62% | 38% |
| 23% | 78% | 50% | 50% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84% | 16% | 95% | 5% |
| 75% | 25% | 89% | 11% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
32%
1-1
17%
X-X
13%
X-2
13%
X-1
9%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
10.1%
1-2
9.0%
2-1
7.1%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
6.5%
0-2
6.2%
1-0
6.1%
1-3
5.2%
0-0
4.6%
2-0
4.3%
0-3
3.8%
2-3
3.7%
3-1
3.6%
3-2
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score