Home
Leagues
Bundesliga
TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart

TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Fair result

TSG Hoffenheim

2–1

VfB Stuttgart

2.4Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances TSG Hoffenheim would usually take 1.7 points and VfB Stuttgart 1.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: TSG Hoffenheim.

TSG Hoffenheim +1.3 pts vs chancesVfB Stuttgart −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart stats: how the match was played

Bundesliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

TSG Hoffenheim had clearly more shots on target

TSG Hoffenheim

VfB Stuttgart

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

43%

Possession

57%

The match between TSG Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart ended 2-1. Our AI model predicted an VfB Stuttgart win at 40% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Borussia Mönchengladbach – TSG Hoffenheim prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Bundesliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

VfB Stuttgart to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: TSG Hoffenheim to win.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 1,528 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 66%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 406 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.1% of the time (bookmakers said 65.2%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 68%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 178 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 50–55%.

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

TSG Hoffenheim ahead at half-time

Correct

Our model 37%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 2,043 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

TSG Hoffenheim Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

TSG Hoffenheim 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: TSG Hoffenheim 2+ goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

VfB Stuttgart Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

VfB Stuttgart 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Bundesliga - Germany

TSG Hoffenheim2

VfB Stuttgart1

Winner

X2 62%

BTTS*

Yes 66%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 68%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 56%

· FT

Bundesliga - Germany

TSG Hoffenheim2

VfB Stuttgart1

Winner

X2 62%

BTTS*

Yes 66%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 68%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 56%

Full Time

138%

X22%

240%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	15%	85%	32%	68%	44%	56%	70%	30%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	15%	85%	32%	68%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	44%	56%	70%	30%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	26%	74%	53%	47%	76%	24%	90%	10%
	26%	74%	52%	48%	76%	24%	89%	11%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	26%	74%	53%	47%
	26%	74%	52%	48%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	76%	24%	90%	10%
	76%	24%	89%	11%

1st Half

137%

X32%

231%

1st Score

149%

X4%

248%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

25%

2-2

25%

X-X

11%

X-2

11%

X-1

10%

1-X

1-2

2-X

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

8.7%

1-2

8.3%

2-1

7.7%

2-2

6.7%

0-1

5.5%

1-0

5.5%

3-1

4.7%

1-3

4.6%

2-0

4.5%

0-2

4.4%

2-3

4.0%

3-2

3.8%

0-0

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Borussia Mönchengladbach – TSG Hoffenheim prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).