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VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 4)

Fair result

VfB Stuttgart

0–1

Borussia Dortmund

1.4Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances VfB Stuttgart would usually take 1.5 points and Borussia Dortmund 1.2; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: VfB Stuttgart.

VfB Stuttgart −1.5 pts vs chancesBorussia Dortmund +1.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund stats: how the match was played

Bundesliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

VfB Stuttgart had more than twice the shots on target

VfB Stuttgart

Borussia Dortmund

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

56%

Possession

44%

The match between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund ended 0-1. Our AI model predicted a VfB Stuttgart win at 44% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Bundesliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

VfB Stuttgart to win

Wrong

Our model 44%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 68%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 406 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.1% of the time (bookmakers said 65.2%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 69%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 178 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 50–55%.

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

VfB Stuttgart ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.

Our model 41%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

VfB Stuttgart Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Borussia Dortmund Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Borussia Dortmund 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 632 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.7% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Bundesliga - Germany

VfB Stuttgart0

Borussia Dortmund1

Winner

1X 66%

BTTS*

Yes 68%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 69%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 58%

· FT

Bundesliga - Germany

VfB Stuttgart0

Borussia Dortmund1

Winner

1X 66%

BTTS*

Yes 68%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 69%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 58%

Full Time

144%

X22%

234%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	13%	87%	31%	69%	42%	58%	69%	31%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	13%	87%	31%	69%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	42%	58%	69%	31%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	22%	78%	47%	53%	72%	28%	87%	13%
	29%	71%	56%	44%	79%	21%	91%	9%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	22%	78%	47%	53%
	29%	71%	56%	44%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	72%	28%	87%	13%
	79%	21%	91%	9%

1st Half

141%

X36%

223%

1st Score

159%

X3%

238%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

32%

X-1

15%

2-2

15%

X-X

12%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

8.9%

2-1

8.4%

2-2

7.5%

1-2

7.3%

1-0

5.5%

3-1

5.4%

2-0

5.0%

0-1

4.6%

3-2

4.3%

1-3

4.0%

0-2

3.8%

2-3

3.8%

3-0

3.3%

0-0

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund — Recent Form

Borussia Dortmund have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 2nd in the table. VfB Stuttgart have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 13th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Borussia Dortmund

VfB Stuttgart

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Borussia Dortmund

2/5

VfB Stuttgart

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Borussia Dortmund

1/5

VfB Stuttgart

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Borussia Dortmund

3/5

VfB Stuttgart

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Borussia Dortmund

3/5

VfB Stuttgart

4/5

First Half Result

Borussia Dortmund

1/5

VfB Stuttgart

2/5

Correct Score

Borussia Dortmund

0/5

VfB Stuttgart

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).