Home
Leagues
Bundesliga
TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV

TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV 2-3 Score & Prediction Review

Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 5)

Fair result

TSG Hoffenheim

2–3

Hamburger SV

1.7Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances TSG Hoffenheim would usually take 1.6 points and Hamburger SV 1.2; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: TSG Hoffenheim.

TSG Hoffenheim −1.6 pts vs chancesHamburger SV +1.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV stats: how the match was played

Bundesliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

TSG Hoffenheim

Hamburger SV

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

64%

Possession

36%

The match between TSG Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV ended 2-3. Our AI model predicted a TSG Hoffenheim win at 51% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: TSG Hoffenheim – Bayer 04 Leverkusen prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Bundesliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

TSG Hoffenheim to win

Wrong

Our model 51%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 2,493 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 64%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,487 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 66%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 1,173 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 55%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 948 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 60.0%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

TSG Hoffenheim ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 40%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 2,012 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

TSG Hoffenheim Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

TSG Hoffenheim 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,498 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Hamburger SV Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hamburger SV 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 65%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 2,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV 2-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Bundesliga - Germany

TSG Hoffenheim2

Hamburger SV3

Winner

1 51%

BTTS*

Yes 64%

Correct Score

2-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 66%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 55%

· FT

Bundesliga - Germany

TSG Hoffenheim2

Hamburger SV3

Winner

1 51%

BTTS*

Yes 64%

Correct Score

2-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 66%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 55%

Full Time

151%

X22%

227%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	15%	85%	34%	66%	45%	55%	71%	29%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	15%	85%	34%	66%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	45%	55%	71%	29%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	18%	82%	43%	57%	68%	32%	85%	15%
	35%	65%	65%	35%	85%	15%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	18%	82%	43%	57%
	35%	65%	65%	35%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	68%	32%	85%	15%
	85%	15%	95%	5%

1st Half

139%

X38%

223%

1st Score

156%

X4%

240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

33%

X-1

15%

X-X

14%

2-2

14%

X-2

1-X

2-1

2-X

1-2

Correct Score

2-1

9.2%

1-1

9.1%

1-0

6.5%

2-2

6.5%

1-2

6.5%

2-0

6.3%

3-1

6.1%

0-1

4.8%

3-2

4.5%

3-0

4.4%

0-0

3.9%

0-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV — Recent Form

Hamburger SV have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 10th in the table. TSG Hoffenheim have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 16th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Hamburger SV

TSG Hoffenheim

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Hamburger SV

3/5

TSG Hoffenheim

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Hamburger SV

2/5

TSG Hoffenheim

5/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Hamburger SV

3/5

TSG Hoffenheim

5/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Hamburger SV

3/5

TSG Hoffenheim

2/5

First Half Result

Hamburger SV

2/5

TSG Hoffenheim

1/5

Correct Score

Hamburger SV

0/5

TSG Hoffenheim

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: TSG Hoffenheim – Bayer 04 Leverkusen prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).