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Cardiff City vs Swindon Town

Cardiff City vs Swindon Town 3-2 Score & Prediction Review

Carabao Cup - Season 2026/2027 1st Round (Knock Out)

Fair result

Cardiff City

3–2

Swindon Town

2.2Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Cardiff City would usually take 2.0 points and Swindon Town 0.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Cardiff City.

Cardiff City +1.0 pts vs chancesSwindon Town −0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Cardiff City vs Swindon Town stats: how the match was played

Carabao Cup

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Cardiff City had more than twice the shots on target

Cardiff City

Swindon Town

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

62%

Possession

38%

The match between Cardiff City and Swindon Town ended 3-2. Our AI model correctly predicted a Cardiff City win with 53% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Cardiff City vs Swindon Town — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Carabao Cup

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cardiff City to win

Correct

Our model 53%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 61%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 66%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 56%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cardiff City ahead at half-time

Correct

Our model 42%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Cardiff City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cardiff City 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 58%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Swindon Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Swindon Town 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 66%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Cardiff City vs Swindon Town 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cardiff City vs Swindon Town. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Carabao Cup - England

Cardiff City3

Swindon Town2

Winner

1 53%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

2-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 66%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 54%

· FT

Carabao Cup - England

Cardiff City3

Swindon Town2

Winner

1 53%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

2-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 66%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 54%

Full Time

153%

X22%

225%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	15%	85%	34%	66%	46%	54%	71%	29%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	15%	85%	34%	66%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	46%	54%	71%	29%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	18%	82%	42%	58%	68%	32%	85%	15%
	37%	63%	66%	34%	86%	14%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	18%	82%	42%	58%
	37%	63%	66%	34%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	68%	32%	85%	15%
	86%	14%	95%	5%

1st Half

142%

X38%

221%

1st Score

163%

X4%

233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

33%

X-1

19%

X-X

13%

2-2

13%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

2-1

9.4%

1-1

9.0%

1-0

6.9%

2-0

6.9%

2-2

6.5%

3-1

6.1%

1-2

6.1%

3-0

4.9%

3-2

4.5%

0-1

4.5%

0-0

3.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score