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Stevenage vs Reading

Stevenage vs Reading 0-3 Score & Prediction Review

Carabao Cup - Season 2026/2027

Fair result

Stevenage

0–3

Reading

1.4Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Stevenage would usually take 1.5 points and Reading 1.2; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Stevenage.

Stevenage −1.5 pts vs chancesReading +1.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Stevenage vs Reading stats: how the match was played

Carabao Cup

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Reading had clearly more shots on target

Stevenage

Reading

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

57%

Possession

43%

The match between Stevenage and Reading ended 0-3. Our AI model correctly predicted an Reading win with 39% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Stevenage vs Reading — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Carabao Cup

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Reading to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Stevenage to win.

Our model 39%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 1,528 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

Our model 53%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 57%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 77%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 47%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Stevenage Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Stevenage 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 70%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Reading Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Reading 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 66%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Stevenage vs Reading 0-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Stevenage vs Reading. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Carabao Cup - England

Stevenage0

Reading3

Winner

12 73%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

· FT

Carabao Cup - England

Stevenage0

Reading3

Winner

12 73%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

Full Time

134%

X27%

239%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	31%	69%	57%	43%	67%	33%	87%	13%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	31%	69%	57%	43%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	67%	33%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	36%	64%	69%	31%	89%	11%	97%	3%
	31%	69%	66%	34%	86%	14%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	36%	64%	69%	31%
	31%	69%	66%	34%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	89%	11%	97%	3%
	86%	14%	95%	5%

1st Half

124%

X47%

229%

1st Score

142%

X10%

248%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

22%

1-1

18%

X-X

18%

X-2

15%

X-1

13%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

12.5%

0-1

11.3%

1-0

10.4%

0-0

9.7%

1-2

7.7%

2-1

7.3%

0-2

6.9%

2-0

5.7%

2-2

4.3%

1-3

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score