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Newcastle United vs West Bromwich Albion 3-2 Score & Prediction Review

Carabao Cup - Season 2026/2027 2nd Round (Knock Out)

Fair result
Newcastle UnitedNewcastle United

3–2

West Bromwich AlbionWest Bromwich Albion
1.7Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Newcastle United would usually take 1.3 points and West Bromwich Albion 1.5; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Newcastle United.

Newcastle United +1.7 pts vs chancesWest Bromwich Albion −1.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Newcastle United vs West Bromwich Albion stats: how the match was played

Carabao Cup

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Newcastle United had more than twice the shots on target

Newcastle United

West Bromwich Albion

7

Shots on target

3

4

Big chances

2

6

Corners

2

3

Yellow cards

3

57%

Possession

44%

The match between Newcastle United and West Bromwich Albion ended 3-2. Our AI model predicted an West Bromwich Albion win at 42% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Everton – Newcastle United prediction & betting tips (Oct 29, 2026).

Newcastle United vs West Bromwich Albion — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Carabao Cup

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

West Bromwich Albion to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Newcastle United to win.

Our model 42%Bookmakers 10%

Our track record

In 1,062 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,722 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 5,327 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 64%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,400 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.9%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Newcastle United ahead at half-time.

Our model 41%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 2,227 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Newcastle United Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Newcastle United 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Newcastle United 2+ goals.

Our model 62%Bookmakers 30%

Our track record

In 384 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.8% than to our 60–65%.

West Bromwich Albion Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

West Bromwich Albion 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 1,614 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Newcastle United vs West Bromwich Albion 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Newcastle United vs West Bromwich Albion. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Carabao Cup - England
Newcastle UnitedNewcastle United3
West Bromwich AlbionWest Bromwich Albion2

Winner

X2 66%

BTTS*

Yes 58%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 54%

Full Time

134%
X24%
242%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT21%79%42%58%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT54%46%79%21%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Newcastle United31%69%62%38%
West Bromwich Albion26%74%55%45%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Newcastle United84%16%95%5%
West Bromwich Albion79%21%92%8%

1st Half

128%
X41%
231%

1st Score

143%
X6%
252%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

23%

1-1

21%

X-X

15%

X-2

14%

X-1

12%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

10.8%

1-2

8.5%

0-1

7.6%

2-1

7.4%

1-0

7.2%

0-2

6.0%

2-2

6.0%

0-0

5.7%

2-0

4.8%

1-3

4.6%

3-1

3.7%

0-3

3.5%

2-3

3.2%

3-2

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Everton – Newcastle United prediction & betting tips (Oct 29, 2026).

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