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Sunderland vs Hull City 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Carabao Cup - Season 2026/2027 3rd Round (Knock Out)

Fair result
SunderlandSunderland

1–0

Hull CityHull City
1.2Chances (xG)0.6

On these chances Sunderland would usually take 1.8 points and Hull City 0.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Sunderland.

Sunderland +1.2 pts vs chancesHull City −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Sunderland vs Hull City stats: how the match was played

Carabao Cup

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Sunderland had more than twice the shots on target

Sunderland

Hull City

4

Shots on target

1

1

Big chances

1

7

Corners

12

1

Yellow cards

3

51%

Possession

49%

The match between Sunderland and Hull City ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Sunderland win with 43% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sunderland – Brentford prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

Sunderland vs Hull City — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Carabao Cup

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sunderland to win

Correct
Our model 43%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,629 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,506 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 5,197 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 76%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,682 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Sunderland ahead at half-time.

Our model 47%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 532 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.

Sunderland Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sunderland 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Sunderland 2+ goals.

Our model 62%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 389 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.8% than to our 60–65%.

Hull City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hull City 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 71%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 3,383 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Sunderland vs Hull City 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Sunderland vs Hull City. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Carabao Cup - England
SunderlandSunderland1
Hull CityHull City0

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

143%
X27%
230%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT30%70%55%45%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT66%34%87%13%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Sunderland29%71%62%38%
Hull City37%63%71%29%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Sunderland84%16%95%5%
Hull City90%10%97%3%

1st Half

129%
X47%
225%

1st Score

150%
X10%
241%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

X-X

19%

2-2

16%

X-1

15%

X-2

12%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.3%

1-0

11.8%

0-0

9.6%

0-1

9.1%

2-1

8.8%

2-0

7.3%

1-2

6.9%

0-2

4.9%

2-2

4.5%

3-1

3.9%

3-0

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sunderland – Brentford prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

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