Always on the scoresheet
0/10Real Madrid scored in all of their last 10 (league 22% fail to score).
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AEK Athens vs Real Madrid Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Champions League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 4)
Riding their luck
Real Madrid are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+5points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Real Madrid 72% to win
Get our AI football prediction and stats for AEK Athens vs Real Madrid: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
AEK Athens vs Real Madrid — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Champions League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Real Madrid to win
Our model 41%Bookmakers 72%
Our track record
In 3,634 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 60%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 2,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 61%Bookmakers 73%
Our track record
In 3,110 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 60%Bookmakers 47%
Our track record
In 253 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 47.1% than to our 60–65%.
First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 42%Bookmakers 32%
Our track record
In 2,248 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
AEK Athens Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
AEK Athens 0–1 goals
Our model 59%Bookmakers 72%
Our track record
In 3,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Real Madrid Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Real Madrid 0–1 goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 25%
Our track record
In 854 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
AEK Athens vs Real Madrid — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for AEK Athens vs Real Madrid. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
AEK Athens–
Real Madrid–Winner
X2 64%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 50%
AEK Athens–Real Madrid–Winner
X2 64%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 50%
Full Time
136%
X23%
241%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 18% | 82% | 39% | 61% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 50% | 50% | 74% | 26% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30% | 70% | 59% | 41% |
| 26% | 74% | 54% | 46% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81% | 19% | 93% | 7% |
| 76% | 24% | 90% | 10% |
1st Half
132%
X42%
226%
1st Score
152%
X5%
243%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
27%
X-1
19%
2-2
18%
X-X
12%
X-2
10%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
10.5%
1-2
7.8%
2-1
7.4%
1-0
6.7%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
5.7%
0-2
5.3%
2-0
5.3%
0-0
4.8%
1-3
4.6%
2-3
3.7%
3-1
3.7%
3-2
3.3%
0-3
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
AEK Athens vs Real Madrid: the stats that stand out
Champions League
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Real Madrid: always on the scoresheet, fast starters and banker as favourites
0/10Fast starters
7/10Real Madrid scored first in 7 of their last 10 (league 48%).
Banker as favourites
5/6Real Madrid won 5 of 6 as favourites (league 60%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →AEK Athens vs Real Madrid: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Champions League
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Champions League gamesBTTS = both teams scoredReal Madrid games go over 2.5 goals more often than the Champions League average (66%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 66%
Real Madrid9 of 10
BTTSleague 59%
Real Madrid8 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 189 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →AEK Athens vs Real Madrid form and luck check
Champions League
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Champions League gamesReal Madrid are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- Real MadridBookmakers: 72% to win today.+5.1
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
How we measure →AEK Athens vs Real Madrid corners, cards and goal times
Champions League
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameReal Madrid score early
AEK Athens
Real Madrid
–
Corners won · league 4.7
5.2
–
Corners conceded · league 4.7
7.2
–
Cards · league 1.8
2.4
–
Opponents' cards · league 1.8
2.2
–
Goals before half-time · league 42%
54%
–
Goals after 75' · league 20%
29%
–
Conceded before half-time · league 42%
47%
–
Conceded after 75' · league 20%
29%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Real Madrid3/3
AEK Athens3/5
Both Teams to Score
Real Madrid3/3
AEK Athens1/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Real Madrid3/3
AEK Athens2/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Real Madrid1/3
AEK Athens2/5
First Half Result
Real Madrid3/3
AEK Athens3/5
Correct Score
Real Madrid0/3
AEK Athens0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction