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Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Champions League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 5)
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Champions League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Fenerbahçe to win
Our track record
In 1,071 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 29.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.2% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our track record
In 5,740 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.7% of the time (bookmakers said 57.9%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 5,122 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 3,993 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.6%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our track record
In 1,937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.9% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Our model’s pick
Shakhtar Donetsk 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 2,644 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
Fenerbahçe 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 1,018 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.7% of the time (bookmakers said 59.4%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Shakhtar Donetsk–
Fenerbahçe–Winner
X2 69%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
Shakhtar Donetsk–Fenerbahçe–Winner
X2 69%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 22% | 78% | 45% | 55% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 58% | 42% | 81% | 19% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 34% | 66% | 66% | 34% |
 | 24% | 76% | 55% | 45% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 14% | 95% | 5% |
| 79% | 21% | 92% | 8% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
23%
2-2
22%
X-1
14%
X-X
13%
X-2
13%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.3%
0-1
9.1%
1-2
9.0%
1-0
7.1%
0-2
7.1%
2-1
7.1%
0-0
5.8%
2-2
5.4%
2-0
4.7%
1-3
4.5%
0-3
4.3%
3-1
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Shakhtar DonetskFenerbahçeBoth Teams to Score
Shakhtar DonetskFenerbahçeOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Shakhtar DonetskFenerbahçeOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Shakhtar DonetskFenerbahçeFirst Half Result
Shakhtar DonetskFenerbahçeCorrect Score
Shakhtar DonetskFenerbahçe