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Riga vs Ararat-Armenia 3-2 Score & Prediction Review
Champions League - Season 2026/2027 1st Qualifying Round (Qualifying)
Riga vs Ararat-Armenia stats: how the match was played
Champions League
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Riga had more than twice the shots on target
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
8
Shots on target
3
8
Corners
2
5
Yellow cards
4
Riga vs Ararat-Armenia — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Champions League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Riga to win
CorrectOur track record
In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Riga ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 1,233 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
Riga 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Riga 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Ararat-Armenia 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Riga vs Ararat-Armenia 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Riga vs Ararat-Armenia. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Riga3
Ararat-Armenia2Winner
1 53%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
Riga3Ararat-Armenia2Winner
1 53%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 24% | 76% | 48% | 52% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 61% | 39% | 83% | 17% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20% | 80% | 50% | 50% |
 | 42% | 58% | 75% | 25% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 24% | 90% | 10% |
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
32%
X-1
19%
2-2
14%
X-X
13%
X-2
8%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.6%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
9.4%
0-0
6.7%
0-1
6.3%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.6%
3-1
5.1%
2-2
5.0%
0-2
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score