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Hearts vs Sturm Graz

Hearts vs Sturm Graz 0-2 Score & Prediction Review

Champions League - Season 2026/2027 2nd Qualifying Round (Qualifying)

Fair result

Hearts

0–2

Sturm Graz

1.2Chances (xG)2.3

On these chances Hearts would usually take 0.8 points and Sturm Graz 2.0; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Hearts.

Hearts −0.8 pts vs chancesSturm Graz +1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Hearts vs Sturm Graz stats: how the match was played

Champions League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Sturm Graz had more than twice the shots on target

Hearts

Sturm Graz

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

64%

Possession

36%

The match between Hearts and Sturm Graz ended 0-2. Our AI model predicted a Hearts win at 45% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Hearts vs Sturm Graz — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Champions League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hearts to win

Wrong

Our model 45%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 3,508 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 51%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 6,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 2,854 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 73%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 4,583 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Hearts ahead at half-time.

Our model 43%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Hearts Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hearts 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Hearts 2+ goals.

Our model 57%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 1,026 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.1% than to our 55–60%.

Sturm Graz Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sturm Graz 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 70%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,376 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Hearts vs Sturm Graz 0-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Hearts vs Sturm Graz. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Champions League - Europe

Hearts0

Sturm Graz2

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

· FT

Champions League - Europe

Hearts0

Sturm Graz2

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

145%

X26%

229%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	26%	74%	50%	50%	63%	37%	84%	16%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	26%	74%	50%	50%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	63%	37%	84%	16%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	26%	74%	57%	43%	81%	19%	93%	7%
	36%	64%	70%	30%	89%	11%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	26%	74%	57%	43%
	36%	64%	70%	30%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	81%	19%	93%	7%
	89%	11%	96%	4%

1st Half

129%

X43%

228%

1st Score

149%

X7%

244%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

23%

2-2

20%

X-1

16%

X-X

15%

X-2

11%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

12.1%

1-0

10.7%

2-1

9.5%

2-0

7.8%

0-1

7.8%

0-0

7.3%

1-2

6.5%

2-2

4.9%

0-2

4.8%

3-1

4.3%

3-0

4.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score