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Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe 0-1 Score & Prediction Review
Champions League - Season 2026/2027 3rd Qualifying Round (Qualifying)
Sturm Graz0–1
FenerbahçeOn these chances Sturm Graz would usually take 1.0 points and Fenerbahçe 1.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Fenerbahçe.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe stats: how the match was played
Champions League
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Fenerbahçe had more than twice the shots on target
Sturm Graz
Fenerbahçe
2
Shots on target
6
1
Big chances
4
7
Corners
6
2
Yellow cards
3
49%
Possession
51%
Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Champions League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Fenerbahçe to win
CorrectOur track record
In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
WrongOur track record
In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Our model’s pick
Fenerbahçe ahead at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 2,043 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Our model’s pick
Sturm Graz 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,588 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Our model’s pick
Fenerbahçe 0–1 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Fenerbahçe 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Sturm Graz0
Fenerbahçe1Winner
2 51%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
0-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Sturm Graz0Fenerbahçe1Winner
2 51%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
0-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 25% | 75% | 49% | 51% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 60% | 40% | 82% | 18% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42% | 58% | 73% | 27% |
| 21% | 79% | 51% | 49% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
| 77% | 23% | 90% | 10% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
29%
X-2
16%
1-1
15%
X-X
14%
X-1
11%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
1-2
4%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
0-1
11.3%
1-1
10.9%
1-2
9.1%
0-2
9.0%
0-0
7.5%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
5.6%
2-2
5.2%
0-3
5.0%
1-3
4.7%
2-0
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score