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Olympique Lyonnais vs Fenerbahçe 1-2 Score & Prediction Review
Champions League - Season 2026/2027 Play-offs (Qualifying)
Olympique Lyonnais1–2
FenerbahçeOn these chances Olympique Lyonnais would usually take 1.5 points and Fenerbahçe 1.3; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Olympique Lyonnais.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Olympique Lyonnais vs Fenerbahçe stats: how the match was played
Champions League
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Olympique Lyonnais
Fenerbahçe
6
Shots on target
7
3
Big chances
3
5
Corners
7
1
Yellow cards
3
59%
Possession
41%
Olympique Lyonnais vs Fenerbahçe — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Champions League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Fenerbahçe to win
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Olympique Lyonnais to win.
Our track record
In 1,064 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Olympique Lyonnais 0–1 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Olympique Lyonnais 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 1,027 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.1% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
Fenerbahçe 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Olympique Lyonnais vs Fenerbahçe 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Olympique Lyonnais vs Fenerbahçe. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Olympique Lyonnais1
Fenerbahçe2Winner
X2 64%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
Olympique Lyonnais1Fenerbahçe2Winner
X2 64%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 16% | 84% | 36% | 65% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 48% | 52% | 73% | 27% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28% | 72% | 57% | 43% |
| 25% | 75% | 53% | 47% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 21% | 92% | 8% |
| 76% | 24% | 90% | 10% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
24%
1-1
20%
X-1
14%
X-X
14%
X-2
12%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
1-2
4%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
9.4%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
7.8%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.3%
1-0
6.0%
0-2
5.1%
2-0
4.5%
1-3
4.5%
3-1
4.2%
0-0
4.2%
2-3
3.9%
3-2
3.6%
0-3
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score