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VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
Champions League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 3)
VfB Stuttgart drew despite more chances
VfB Stuttgart1–1
Atlético MadridOn these chances VfB Stuttgart would usually take 2.0 points and Atlético Madrid 0.8; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Atlético Madrid.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid stats: how the match was played
Champions League
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
VfB Stuttgart had clearly more shots on target
VfB Stuttgart
Atlético Madrid
5
Shots on target
3
2
Big chances
0
9
Corners
4
1
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
1
53%
Possession
47%
VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Champions League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
VfB Stuttgart to win
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Atlético Madrid to win.
Our track record
In 1,073 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.2% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 2,489 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,101 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,413 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 1,965 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.7% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Our model’s pick
VfB Stuttgart 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.9% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Our model’s pick
Atlético Madrid 0–1 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Atlético Madrid 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 661 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
VfB Stuttgart1
Atlético Madrid1Winner
1X 62%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
VfB Stuttgart1Atlético Madrid1Winner
1X 62%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 17% | 83% | 38% | 62% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 51% | 49% | 75% | 25% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26% | 74% | 55% | 45% |
| 28% | 72% | 57% | 43% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 21% | 91% | 9% |
| 80% | 20% | 92% | 8% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
29%
X-1
17%
2-2
17%
X-X
12%
X-2
10%
1-X
4%
2-X
4%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
9.8%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.0%
1-0
6.9%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
6.3%
2-0
5.5%
0-2
5.1%
1-3
4.2%
0-0
4.1%
3-1
4.1%
2-3
3.3%
3-2
3.3%
3-0
3.2%
0-3
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid — Recent Form
Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
VfB StuttgartAtlético MadridBoth Teams to Score
VfB StuttgartAtlético MadridOver/Under 2.5 Goals
VfB StuttgartAtlético MadridOver/Under 3.5 Goals
VfB StuttgartAtlético MadridFirst Half Result
VfB StuttgartAtlético MadridCorrect Score
VfB StuttgartAtlético Madrid