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Swansea City vs Southampton 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Championship - Season 2025/2026 (Round 43)

Fair result
Swansea CitySwansea City

1–2

SouthamptonSouthampton
0.9Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Swansea City would usually take 0.9 points and Southampton 1.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Southampton.

Swansea City −0.9 pts vs chancesSouthampton +1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Swansea City vs Southampton stats: how the match was played

Championship

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Southampton had more than twice the shots on target

Swansea City

Southampton

3

Shots on target

6

1

Big chances

1

4

Corners

12

2

Yellow cards

2

45%

Possession

55%

The match between Swansea City and Southampton ended 1-2. Our AI model correctly predicted an Southampton win with 41% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Norwich City – Southampton prediction & betting tips (Oct 14, 2026).

Swansea City vs Southampton — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Championship

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Southampton to win

Correct
Our model 41%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,577 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 46.8% of the time (bookmakers said 46.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,613 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,254 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 3,920 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Southampton ahead at half-time.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 2,182 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.4% than to our 40–45%.

Swansea City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Swansea City 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,423 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Southampton Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Southampton 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Southampton 2+ goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 614 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.7% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Swansea City vs Southampton 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Swansea City vs Southampton. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Championship - England
Swansea CitySwansea City1
SouthamptonSouthampton2

Winner

X2 66%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

Full Time

134%
X25%
241%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT21%79%44%56%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT56%44%80%20%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Swansea City29%71%62%38%
Southampton25%75%56%44%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Swansea City85%15%95%5%
Southampton80%20%93%7%

1st Half

128%
X40%
232%

1st Score

147%
X6%
247%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

22%

1-1

20%

X-X

14%

X-2

14%

X-1

12%

1-X

6%

2-X

6%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

11.2%

1-2

9.2%

1-0

7.9%

0-1

7.9%

2-1

7.8%

2-2

6.2%

0-2

6.0%

0-0

5.6%

2-0

5.0%

1-3

4.7%

3-1

3.6%

2-3

3.4%

0-3

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Norwich City – Southampton prediction & betting tips (Oct 14, 2026).

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