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Bolton Wanderers vs Preston North End 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 1)

Fair result
Bolton WanderersBolton Wanderers

2–1

Preston North EndPreston North End
1.6Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Bolton Wanderers would usually take 1.6 points and Preston North End 1.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Bolton Wanderers.

Bolton Wanderers +1.4 pts vs chancesPreston North End −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Bolton Wanderers vs Preston North End stats: how the match was played

Championship

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Bolton Wanderers had more than twice the shots on target

Bolton Wanderers

Preston North End

6

Shots on target

3

2

Big chances

4

5

Corners

2

2

Yellow cards

3

55%

Possession

45%

The match between Bolton Wanderers and Preston North End ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Bolton Wanderers win with 55% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bolton Wanderers – Middlesbrough prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Bolton Wanderers vs Preston North End — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Championship

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bolton Wanderers to win

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 69%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 41%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Bolton Wanderers Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bolton Wanderers 2+ goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Bolton Wanderers 0–1 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Preston North End Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Preston North End 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 76%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Bolton Wanderers vs Preston North End 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Bolton Wanderers vs Preston North End. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Championship - England
Bolton WanderersBolton Wanderers2
Preston North EndPreston North End1

Winner

1 55%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

Full Time

155%
X24%
221%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT23%77%47%53%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT59%41%82%18%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Bolton Wanderers18%82%48%52%
Preston North End43%57%76%24%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Bolton Wanderers74%26%89%11%
Preston North End92%8%98%2%

1st Half

140%
X41%
218%

1st Score

162%
X6%
232%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

35%

X-1

19%

X-X

15%

2-2

10%

X-2

7%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

4%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-1

11.2%

1-0

10.9%

2-1

10.0%

2-0

9.3%

0-0

6.5%

0-1

6.0%

3-0

5.7%

3-1

5.6%

1-2

5.5%

2-2

5.1%

3-2

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bolton Wanderers – Middlesbrough prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

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