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Cardiff City vs Wrexham

Cardiff City vs Wrexham 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 1)

Robbed

Wrexham drew despite more chances

Cardiff City

1–1

Wrexham

0.9Chances (xG)2.0

On these chances Cardiff City would usually take 0.7 points and Wrexham 2.1; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Cardiff City.

Cardiff City +0.3 pts vs chancesWrexham −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Cardiff City vs Wrexham stats: how the match was played

Championship

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Wrexham had more than twice the shots on target

Cardiff City

Wrexham

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

68%

Possession

33%

The match between Cardiff City and Wrexham ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Cardiff City win at 57% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sheffield United – Wrexham prediction & betting tips (Oct 30, 2026).

Cardiff City vs Wrexham — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Championship

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cardiff City to win

Wrong

Our model 57%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 59%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 64%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cardiff City ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 46%Bookmakers 31%

Our track record

In 531 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.

Cardiff City Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cardiff City 2+ goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Cardiff City 0–1 goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 1,027 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.1% than to our 55–60%.

Wrexham Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Wrexham 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 73%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Cardiff City vs Wrexham 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cardiff City vs Wrexham. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Championship - England

Cardiff City1

Wrexham1

Winner

1 57%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-0 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 54%

· FT

Championship - England

Cardiff City1

Wrexham1

Winner

1 57%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-0 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 54%

Full Time

157%

X21%

221%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	20%	80%	41%	59%	54%	46%	77%	23%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	20%	80%	41%	59%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	54%	46%	77%	23%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	17%	83%	44%	56%	70%	30%	87%	13%
	43%	57%	73%	27%	91%	10%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	17%	83%	44%	56%
	43%	57%	73%	27%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	70%	30%	87%	13%
	91%	10%	97%	3%

1st Half

146%

X38%

216%

1st Score

166%

X5%

229%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

40%

X-1

19%

X-X

13%

2-2

X-2

1-X

2-1

2-X

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

9.8%

1-1

9.8%

2-1

9.6%

2-0

9.1%

3-1

6.2%

3-0

5.8%

1-2

5.5%

2-2

5.3%

0-0

5.0%

0-1

4.9%

3-2

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sheffield United – Wrexham prediction & betting tips (Oct 30, 2026).