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West Bromwich Albion vs Burnley 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 2)

Fair result
West Bromwich AlbionWest Bromwich Albion

3–1

BurnleyBurnley
2.0Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances West Bromwich Albion would usually take 1.9 points and Burnley 0.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: West Bromwich Albion.

West Bromwich Albion +1.1 pts vs chancesBurnley −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

West Bromwich Albion vs Burnley stats: how the match was played

Championship

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

West Bromwich Albion had more than twice the shots on target

West Bromwich Albion

Burnley

7

Shots on target

3

2

Big chances

2

3

Corners

5

1

Yellow cards

2

52%

Possession

49%

The match between West Bromwich Albion and Burnley ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a West Bromwich Albion win with 55% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

West Bromwich Albion vs Burnley — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Championship

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

West Bromwich Albion to win

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 559 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.8% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 77%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

West Bromwich Albion ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.

Our model 42%Bookmakers 30%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

West Bromwich Albion Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

West Bromwich Albion 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Burnley Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Burnley 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 81%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

West Bromwich Albion vs Burnley 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for West Bromwich Albion vs Burnley. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Championship - England
West Bromwich AlbionWest Bromwich Albion3
BurnleyBurnley1

Winner

1 55%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

Full Time

155%
X26%
219%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT31%69%56%44%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT67%33%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
West Bromwich Albion22%78%53%47%
Burnley49%51%81%19%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
West Bromwich Albion78%22%91%9%
Burnley95%5%99%1%

1st Half

142%
X41%
216%

1st Score

161%
X10%
229%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

37%

X-1

19%

X-X

15%

2-2

9%

X-2

7%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

14.0%

1-1

11.4%

2-0

10.7%

0-0

9.8%

2-1

9.3%

0-1

7.1%

3-0

5.8%

1-2

4.8%

3-1

4.5%

2-2

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

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