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Norwich City vs Burnley 4-1 Score & Prediction Review

Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Fair result
Norwich CityNorwich City

4–1

BurnleyBurnley
1.9Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Norwich City would usually take 1.6 points and Burnley 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Norwich City.

Norwich City +1.4 pts vs chancesBurnley −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Norwich City vs Burnley stats: how the match was played

Championship

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Norwich City had clearly more shots on target

Norwich City

Burnley

6

Shots on target

4

4

Big chances

2

3

Corners

5

4

Yellow cards

2

0

Red cards

1

37%

Possession

63%

The match between Norwich City and Burnley ended 4-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Norwich City win with 54% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Charlton Athletic – Norwich City prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Norwich City vs Burnley — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Championship

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Norwich City to win

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,492 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,719 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,328 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 67%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 3,980 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Norwich City ahead at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 43%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Norwich City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Norwich City 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 2,822 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Burnley Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Burnley 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 73%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,376 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Norwich City vs Burnley 4-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Norwich City vs Burnley. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Championship - England
Norwich CityNorwich City4
BurnleyBurnley1

Winner

1 54%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 57%

Full Time

154%
X23%
223%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT22%78%44%56%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT57%43%80%20%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Norwich City18%82%47%53%
Burnley41%59%73%27%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Norwich City74%26%89%11%
Burnley91%9%97%3%

1st Half

143%
X40%
217%

1st Score

162%
X6%
232%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

37%

X-1

19%

X-X

14%

2-2

10%

X-2

7%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

10.8%

2-1

10.3%

1-0

10.1%

2-0

8.7%

1-2

6.0%

0-0

5.8%

0-1

5.6%

3-1

5.6%

3-0

5.5%

2-2

5.4%

3-2

3.2%

0-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Charlton Athletic – Norwich City prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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