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Burnley vs Middlesbrough 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 4)

Fair result
BurnleyBurnley

1–1

MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough
0.9Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Burnley would usually take 1.2 points and Middlesbrough 1.5; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Middlesbrough.

Burnley −0.1 pts vs chancesMiddlesbrough −0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Burnley vs Middlesbrough stats: how the match was played

Championship

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Burnley had clearly more shots on target

Burnley

Middlesbrough

3

Shots on target

2

0

Big chances

3

5

Corners

1

2

Yellow cards

2

42%

Possession

58%

The match between Burnley and Middlesbrough ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted an Middlesbrough win at 43% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bolton Wanderers – Middlesbrough prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Burnley vs Middlesbrough — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Championship

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Middlesbrough to win

Wrong
Our model 44%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Middlesbrough ahead at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 42%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Burnley Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Burnley 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 68%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Middlesbrough Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Middlesbrough 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Middlesbrough 2+ goals.

Our model 58%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 632 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.7% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Burnley vs Middlesbrough 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Burnley vs Middlesbrough. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Championship - England
BurnleyBurnley1
MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough1

Winner

X2 68%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

132%
X25%
243%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT26%74%50%50%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT62%38%84%16%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Burnley35%65%68%32%
Middlesbrough27%73%58%42%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Burnley89%11%97%3%
Middlesbrough81%19%93%7%

1st Half

121%
X37%
242%

1st Score

135%
X8%
258%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

35%

X-2

15%

X-X

14%

1-1

13%

X-1

8%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

4%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.3%

0-1

9.7%

1-0

8.8%

1-2

8.8%

0-0

7.5%

0-2

7.0%

2-1

7.0%

2-0

5.4%

2-2

5.1%

1-3

4.2%

0-3

3.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bolton Wanderers – Middlesbrough prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

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