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Swansea City vs Burnley

Swansea City vs Burnley 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)

Fair result

Swansea City

3–1

Burnley

1.4Chances (xG)2.1

On these chances Swansea City would usually take 1.0 points and Burnley 1.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Swansea City.

Swansea City +2.0 pts vs chancesBurnley −1.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Swansea City vs Burnley stats: how the match was played

Championship

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Swansea City

Burnley

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

55%

Possession

45%

The match between Swansea City and Burnley ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Swansea City win with 48% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

Swansea City vs Burnley — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Championship

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Swansea City to win

Correct

Our model 48%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 817 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 77%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 42%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Swansea City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Swansea City 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 58%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Burnley Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Burnley 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 76%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Swansea City vs Burnley 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Swansea City vs Burnley. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Championship - England

Swansea City3

Burnley1

Winner

1X 75%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

· FT

Championship - England

Swansea City3

Burnley1

Winner

1X 75%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

Full Time

148%

X27%

225%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	31%	69%	56%	44%	67%	33%	87%	13%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	31%	69%	56%	44%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	67%	33%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	25%	75%	58%	42%	82%	18%	94%	6%
	42%	58%	76%	24%	92%	8%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	25%	75%	58%	42%
	42%	58%	76%	24%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	82%	18%	94%	6%
	92%	8%	98%	2%

1st Half

137%

X42%

221%

1st Score

155%

X10%

235%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

29%

X-1

16%

X-X

16%

2-2

14%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

12.8%

1-1

12.2%

0-0

9.6%

2-0

9.3%

2-1

9.1%

0-1

8.2%

1-2

6.1%

3-0

4.5%

2-2

4.5%

3-1

4.1%

0-2

3.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score