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Independiente Medellín vs Vasco da Gama 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Copa Sudamericana - Season 2026 Knockout Round Play-offs (Knock Out)

Fair result
Independiente MedellínIndependiente Medellín

2–2

Vasco da GamaVasco da Gama
0.7Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Independiente Medellín would usually take 0.8 points and Vasco da Gama 2.0; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Vasco da Gama.

Independiente Medellín +0.2 pts vs chancesVasco da Gama −1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Independiente Medellín vs Vasco da Gama stats: how the match was played

Copa Sudamericana

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Independiente Medellín

Vasco da Gama

3

Shots on target

4

1

Big chances

1

3

Corners

6

1

Yellow cards

1

48%

Possession

52%

The match between Independiente Medellín and Vasco da Gama ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted a Independiente Medellín win at 46% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Vasco da Gama – Boca Juniors prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

Independiente Medellín vs Vasco da Gama — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Copa Sudamericana

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente Medellín to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Vasco da Gama to win.

Our model 46%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 380 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 27.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.8% than to our 45–50%.

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 559 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.8% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 79%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 45%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Independiente Medellín Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente Medellín 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 61%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Vasco da Gama Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Vasco da Gama 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 77%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Independiente Medellín vs Vasco da Gama 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Independiente Medellín vs Vasco da Gama. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Copa Sudamericana - South America
Independiente MedellínIndependiente Medellín2
Vasco da GamaVasco da Gama2

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

Full Time

146%
X28%
226%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT33%67%58%42%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT69%31%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Independiente Medellín27%73%61%39%
Vasco da Gama42%58%77%23%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Independiente Medellín85%15%95%5%
Vasco da Gama92%8%98%2%

1st Half

134%
X45%
222%

1st Score

154%
X10%
235%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

25%

X-X

18%

X-1

17%

2-2

15%

X-2

10%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

13.5%

1-1

12.6%

0-0

10.5%

2-0

9.1%

2-1

9.1%

0-1

8.9%

1-2

6.0%

3-0

4.2%

2-2

4.0%

0-2

4.0%

3-1

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Vasco da Gama – Boca Juniors prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

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