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Tigre vs Nacional

Tigre vs Nacional 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Copa Sudamericana - Season 2026 Knockout Round Play-offs (Knock Out)

Fair result

Tigre

1–2

Nacional

1.1Chances (xG)0.5

On these chances Tigre would usually take 1.8 points and Nacional 0.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Tigre.

Tigre −1.8 pts vs chancesNacional +2.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Tigre vs Nacional stats: how the match was played

Copa Sudamericana

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Tigre

Nacional

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

38%

Possession

62%

The match between Tigre and Nacional ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Tigre win at 42% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

Tigre vs Nacional — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Copa Sudamericana

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tigre to win

Wrong

Our model 42%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 55%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 60%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 80%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 47%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Tigre Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tigre 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 65%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Nacional Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Nacional 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 74%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Tigre vs Nacional 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Tigre vs Nacional. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Copa Sudamericana - South America

Tigre1

Nacional2

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

· FT

Copa Sudamericana - South America

Tigre1

Nacional2

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

Full Time

142%

X29%

229%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	34%	66%	60%	40%	70%	30%	90%	10%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	34%	66%	60%	40%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	70%	30%	90%	10%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	30%	70%	65%	35%	87%	13%	96%	4%
	39%	61%	74%	26%	91%	9%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	30%	70%	65%	35%
	39%	61%	74%	26%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	87%	13%	96%	4%
	91%	9%	97%	3%

1st Half

128%

X47%

225%

1st Score

150%

X11%

239%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

21%

X-X

20%

2-2

17%

X-1

16%

X-2

13%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

13.0%

1-0

12.8%

0-0

10.8%

0-1

10.1%

2-0

8.3%

2-1

8.2%

1-2

6.4%

0-2

5.1%

2-2

4.1%

3-0

3.5%

3-1

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score