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Olimpia vs Vasco da Gama 1-4 Score & Prediction Review

Copa Sudamericana - Season 2026 8th Finals (Knock Out)

Fair result
OlimpiaOlimpia

1–4

Vasco da GamaVasco da Gama
1.6Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Olimpia would usually take 1.3 points and Vasco da Gama 1.5; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Vasco da Gama.

Olimpia −1.3 pts vs chancesVasco da Gama +1.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Olimpia vs Vasco da Gama stats: how the match was played

Copa Sudamericana

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Olimpia

Vasco da Gama

7

Shots on target

9

2

Big chances

4

7

Corners

3

2

Yellow cards

4

56%

Possession

44%

The match between Olimpia and Vasco da Gama ended 1-4. Our AI model predicted a Olimpia win at 47% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Vasco da Gama – Boca Juniors prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

Olimpia vs Vasco da Gama — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Copa Sudamericana

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Olimpia to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Vasco da Gama to win.

Our model 47%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 380 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 27.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.8% than to our 45–50%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 5,183 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 76%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 3,678 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 46%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 4,241 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Olimpia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Olimpia 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,476 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Vasco da Gama Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Vasco da Gama 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 74%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,376 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Olimpia vs Vasco da Gama 1-4 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Olimpia vs Vasco da Gama. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Copa Sudamericana - South America
OlimpiaOlimpia1
Vasco da GamaVasco da Gama4

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

147%
X26%
226%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT29%71%54%46%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT66%34%87%13%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Olimpia25%75%58%42%
Vasco da Gama40%60%74%26%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Olimpia82%18%94%6%
Vasco da Gama92%8%98%2%

1st Half

134%
X46%
220%

1st Score

158%
X9%
234%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

27%

X-1

20%

X-X

17%

2-2

12%

X-2

10%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.5%

1-0

12.1%

2-1

9.4%

0-0

8.6%

2-0

8.6%

0-1

8.3%

1-2

6.5%

2-2

4.5%

3-0

4.4%

0-2

4.2%

3-1

4.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Vasco da Gama – Boca Juniors prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

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