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Deportivo Recoleta vs Boca Juniors 0-4 Score & Prediction Review

Copa Sudamericana - Season 2026 8th Finals (Knock Out)

Fair result
Deportivo RecoletaDeportivo Recoleta

0–4

Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors
1.3Chances (xG)2.1

On these chances Deportivo Recoleta would usually take 0.9 points and Boca Juniors 1.9; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Boca Juniors.

Deportivo Recoleta −0.9 pts vs chancesBoca Juniors +1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Deportivo Recoleta vs Boca Juniors stats: how the match was played

Copa Sudamericana

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Boca Juniors had more than twice the shots on target

Deportivo Recoleta

Boca Juniors

4

Shots on target

11

3

Big chances

4

8

Corners

5

2

Yellow cards

0

52%

Possession

48%

The match between Deportivo Recoleta and Boca Juniors ended 0-4. Our AI model correctly predicted an Boca Juniors win with 48% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Both Teams To Score.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Vasco da Gama – Boca Juniors prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

Deportivo Recoleta vs Boca Juniors — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Copa Sudamericana

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Boca Juniors to win

Correct
Our model 48%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 58%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 817 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 79%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Boca Juniors ahead at half-time.

Our model 47%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 531 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.

Deportivo Recoleta Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo Recoleta 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 77%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 842 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Boca Juniors Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Boca Juniors 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Boca Juniors 2+ goals.

Our model 60%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 632 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.7% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Deportivo Recoleta vs Boca Juniors 0-4 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Deportivo Recoleta vs Boca Juniors. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Copa Sudamericana - South America
Deportivo RecoletaDeportivo Recoleta0
Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors4

Winner

X2 75%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

0-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

Full Time

125%
X27%
248%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT32%68%58%42%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT69%31%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Deportivo Recoleta42%58%77%23%
Boca Juniors26%74%60%40%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Deportivo Recoleta93%7%98%2%
Boca Juniors83%17%95%5%

1st Half

119%
X47%
234%

1st Score

133%
X10%
257%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

29%

X-2

19%

X-X

16%

1-1

11%

X-1

10%

2-X

5%

1-X

4%

1-2

4%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

0-1

13.3%

1-1

12.4%

0-0

9.8%

1-2

9.3%

0-2

9.2%

1-0

9.0%

2-1

5.8%

2-0

4.3%

0-3

4.2%

1-3

4.1%

2-2

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Vasco da Gama – Boca Juniors prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

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