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Palermo vs Lecce

Palermo vs Lecce 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

Coppa Italia - Season 2026/2027 1st Round (Knock Out)

Fair result

Palermo

2–0

Lecce

1.3Chances (xG)2.1

On these chances Palermo would usually take 0.9 points and Lecce 1.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Palermo.

Palermo +2.1 pts vs chancesLecce −1.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Palermo vs Lecce stats: how the match was played

Coppa Italia

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Palermo

Lecce

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

47%

Possession

53%

The match between Palermo and Lecce ended 2-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Palermo win with 53% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Palermo vs Lecce — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Coppa Italia

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Palermo to win

Correct

Our model 53%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 68%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 41%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Palermo Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Palermo 2+ goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Palermo 0–1 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Lecce Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lecce 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 74%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Palermo vs Lecce 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Palermo vs Lecce. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Coppa Italia - Italy

Palermo2

Lecce0

Winner

1 53%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

· FT

Coppa Italia - Italy

Palermo2

Lecce0

Winner

1 53%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

Full Time

153%

X25%

222%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	46%	54%	58%	42%	80%	20%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	46%	54%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	58%	42%	80%	20%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	19%	81%	48%	52%	73%	27%	88%	12%
	43%	57%	74%	26%	91%	9%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	19%	81%	48%	52%
	43%	57%	74%	26%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	73%	27%	88%	12%
	91%	9%	97%	3%

1st Half

139%

X41%

220%

1st Score

160%

X7%

233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

34%

X-1

18%

X-X

14%

2-2

12%

X-2

2-X

1-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

11.4%

1-0

9.8%

2-0

9.1%

2-1

8.7%

0-0

6.7%

3-0

6.2%

0-1

5.8%

1-2

5.6%

3-1

5.0%

2-2

5.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score