Osnabrück vs FC Bayern München 1-4 Score & Prediction Review
DFB Pokal - Season 2026/2027 1st Round (Knock Out)
Osnabrück1–4
FC Bayern MünchenOn these chances Osnabrück would usually take 0.2 points and FC Bayern München 2.7; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: FC Bayern München.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Osnabrück vs FC Bayern München stats: how the match was played
DFB Pokal
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
FC Bayern München had more than twice the shots on target
Osnabrück
FC Bayern München
2
Shots on target
9
0
Big chances
5
0
Corners
8
0
Yellow cards
0
33%
Possession
67%
Osnabrück vs FC Bayern München — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · DFB Pokal
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
FC Bayern München to win
CorrectOur track record
In 325 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 289 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).
Our model’s pick
Over 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 286 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Our model’s pick
FC Bayern München ahead at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 1,249 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).
Our model’s pick
Osnabrück 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 842 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).
Our model’s pick
FC Bayern München 2+ goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Osnabrück vs FC Bayern München 1-4 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Osnabrück vs FC Bayern München. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Osnabrück1
FC Bayern München4Winner
2 71%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-2 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 72%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 61%
Osnabrück1FC Bayern München4Winner
2 71%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-2 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 72%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 61%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 12% | 88% | 28% | 72% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 39% | 61% | 62% | 38% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54% | 46% | 79% | 21% |
| 10% | 90% | 28% | 72% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
| 51% | 49% | 71% | 29% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
50%
X-2
17%
X-X
9%
1-1
8%
X-1
6%
2-X
4%
1-X
3%
1-2
3%
2-1
1%
Correct Score
1-2
8.8%
0-2
8.5%
0-3
7.6%
1-3
7.4%
0-1
6.6%
1-1
6.2%
2-2
4.3%
2-3
3.9%
2-1
3.6%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score