Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia 3-1 Score & Prediction Review
Ekstraklasa - Season 2025/2026 (Round 19)
Radomiak Radom3–1
Arka GdyniaOn these chances Radomiak Radom would usually take 1.1 points and Arka Gdynia 1.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Radomiak Radom.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia stats: how the match was played
Ekstraklasa
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Arka Gdynia had clearly more shots on target
Radomiak Radom
Arka Gdynia
5
Shots on target
8
2
Big chances
3
3
Corners
7
3
Yellow cards
3
48%
Possession
52%
Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Ekstraklasa
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Radomiak Radom to win
CorrectOur track record
In 1,775 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.1% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 6,410 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.4% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,124 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,921 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Our model’s pick
Radomiak Radom ahead at half-time
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,184 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.4% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Radomiak Radom 2+ goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,785 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Our model’s pick
Arka Gdynia 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,571 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Radomiak Radom3
Arka Gdynia1Winner
1 57%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-0 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Radomiak Radom3Arka Gdynia1Winner
1 57%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-0 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 23% | 77% | 46% | 54% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 59% | 41% | 82% | 18% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17% | 83% | 46% | 54% |
| 43% | 57% | 76% | 24% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 27% | 89% | 11% |
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
36%
X-1
18%
X-X
14%
2-2
10%
X-2
7%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-0
10.8%
1-1
10.7%
2-1
10.6%
2-0
9.5%
3-1
6.2%
3-0
6.0%
0-0
5.9%
0-1
5.8%
1-2
5.3%
2-2
5.1%
3-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score