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Widzew Lodz vs Lech Poznań 2-3 Score & Prediction Review

Ekstraklasa - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Fair result
Widzew LodzWidzew Lodz

2–3

Lech PoznańLech Poznań
1.4Chances (xG)1.7

On these chances Widzew Lodz would usually take 1.2 points and Lech Poznań 1.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Lech Poznań.

Widzew Lodz −1.2 pts vs chancesLech Poznań +1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Widzew Lodz vs Lech Poznań stats: how the match was played

Ekstraklasa

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Widzew Lodz

Lech Poznań

7

Shots on target

9

1

Big chances

3

7

Corners

9

1

Yellow cards

2

38%

Possession

62%

The match between Widzew Lodz and Lech Poznań ended 2-3. Our AI model correctly predicted an Lech Poznań win with 45% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lech Poznań – Korona Kielce prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Widzew Lodz vs Lech Poznań — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ekstraklasa

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lech Poznań to win

Correct
Our model 45%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 70%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 41%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Widzew Lodz Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Widzew Lodz 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 68%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Lech Poznań Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lech Poznań 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Widzew Lodz vs Lech Poznań 2-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Widzew Lodz vs Lech Poznań. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Ekstraklasa - Poland
Widzew LodzWidzew Lodz2
Lech PoznańLech Poznań3

Winner

X2 72%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

129%
X26%
245%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT24%76%47%53%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT60%40%83%17%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Widzew Lodz35%65%68%32%
Lech Poznań23%77%55%45%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Widzew Lodz89%11%97%3%
Lech Poznań79%21%93%7%

1st Half

125%
X41%
235%

1st Score

142%
X7%
251%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

28%

X-X

17%

1-1

15%

X-2

14%

X-1

11%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.8%

1-2

9.5%

0-1

9.4%

1-0

7.3%

2-1

7.2%

0-2

7.2%

0-0

7.0%

2-2

6.0%

1-3

4.6%

2-0

4.3%

0-3

4.2%

2-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lech Poznań – Korona Kielce prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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