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Górnik Zabrze vs Lech Poznań 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Ekstraklasa - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)

Fair result
Górnik ZabrzeGórnik Zabrze

2–1

Lech PoznańLech Poznań
1.2Chances (xG)0.7

On these chances Górnik Zabrze would usually take 1.8 points and Lech Poznań 0.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Lech Poznań.

Górnik Zabrze +1.2 pts vs chancesLech Poznań −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Górnik Zabrze vs Lech Poznań stats: how the match was played

Ekstraklasa

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Górnik Zabrze had more than twice the shots on target

Górnik Zabrze

Lech Poznań

4

Shots on target

1

3

Big chances

0

5

Corners

4

5

Yellow cards

2

52%

Possession

49%

The match between Górnik Zabrze and Lech Poznań ended 2-1. Our AI model predicted an Lech Poznań win at 48% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lech Poznań – Korona Kielce prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Górnik Zabrze vs Lech Poznań — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ekstraklasa

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lech Poznań to win

Wrong
Our model 48%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 42%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Górnik Zabrze Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Górnik Zabrze 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 66%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Lech Poznań Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lech Poznań 2+ goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Lech Poznań 0–1 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Górnik Zabrze vs Lech Poznań 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Górnik Zabrze vs Lech Poznań. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Ekstraklasa - Poland
Górnik ZabrzeGórnik Zabrze2
Lech PoznańLech Poznań1

Winner

X2 73%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

Full Time

127%
X26%
248%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT20%80%42%58%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT55%46%79%21%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Górnik Zabrze34%66%66%34%
Lech Poznań20%80%49%51%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Górnik Zabrze88%12%96%4%
Lech Poznań75%25%90%10%

1st Half

122%
X42%
236%

1st Score

141%
X6%
253%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

30%

X-X

15%

X-2

15%

1-1

13%

X-1

10%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

5%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.1%

1-2

10.0%

0-1

8.3%

2-1

7.1%

0-2

6.8%

2-2

6.7%

1-0

6.0%

0-0

5.7%

1-3

5.0%

0-3

4.1%

2-3

3.9%

2-0

3.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lech Poznań – Korona Kielce prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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