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Lillestrøm vs Fredrikstad 1-4 Score & Prediction Review

Eliteserien - Season 2026 (Round 19)

Fair result
LillestrømLillestrøm

1–4

FredrikstadFredrikstad
2.3Chances (xG)2.2

On these chances Lillestrøm would usually take 1.5 points and Fredrikstad 1.3; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Lillestrøm.

Lillestrøm −1.5 pts vs chancesFredrikstad +1.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Lillestrøm vs Fredrikstad stats: how the match was played

Eliteserien

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Fredrikstad had clearly more shots on target

Lillestrøm

Fredrikstad

5

Shots on target

9

2

Big chances

2

10

Corners

3

2

Yellow cards

1

53%

Possession

47%

The match between Lillestrøm and Fredrikstad ended 1-4. Our AI model predicted a Lillestrøm win at 50% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sandefjord – Lillestrøm prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Lillestrøm vs Fredrikstad — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Eliteserien

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lillestrøm to win

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lillestrøm ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 40%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Lillestrøm Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lillestrøm 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Fredrikstad Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fredrikstad 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 63%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 2,695 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Lillestrøm vs Fredrikstad 1-4 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Lillestrøm vs Fredrikstad. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Eliteserien - Norway
LillestrømLillestrøm1
FredrikstadFredrikstad4

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 65%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 66%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 54%

Full Time

150%
X22%
229%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT15%85%34%66%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT46%54%72%28%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Lillestrøm19%81%45%55%
Fredrikstad34%66%63%37%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Lillestrøm71%29%87%13%
Fredrikstad84%16%94%6%

1st Half

140%
X36%
223%

1st Score

157%
X4%
239%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

32%

X-1

17%

2-2

14%

X-X

12%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

4%

1-2

3%

Correct Score

1-1

9.4%

2-1

9.2%

1-0

6.8%

1-2

6.7%

2-2

6.4%

2-0

6.3%

3-1

5.8%

0-1

4.7%

3-0

4.2%

3-2

4.1%

0-0

3.6%

0-2

3.5%

1-3

3.4%

2-3

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sandefjord – Lillestrøm prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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