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Lillestrøm vs Molde

Lillestrøm vs Molde 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Eliteserien - Season 2026 (Round 23)

Robbed

Molde drew despite more chances

Lillestrøm

2–2

Molde

1.5Chances (xG)2.8

On these chances Lillestrøm would usually take 0.7 points and Molde 2.1; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Lillestrøm.

Lillestrøm +0.3 pts vs chancesMolde −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Lillestrøm vs Molde stats: how the match was played

Eliteserien

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Molde had more than twice the shots on target

Lillestrøm

Molde

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

42%

Possession

58%

The match between Lillestrøm and Molde ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted an Molde win at 45% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Brann – Molde prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).

Lillestrøm vs Molde — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Eliteserien

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Molde to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Lillestrøm to win.

Our model 45%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 1,071 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.2% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 70%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 409 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 65.3%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 71%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 296 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.9% of the time (bookmakers said 71.3%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 51%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 290 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Molde ahead at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 38%Bookmakers 32%

Our track record

In 1,204 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.0% than to our 35–40%.

Lillestrøm Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lillestrøm 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Lillestrøm 2+ goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 1,020 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.8% than to our 55–60%.

Molde Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Molde 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 1,021 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.9% of the time (bookmakers said 59.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Lillestrøm vs Molde 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Lillestrøm vs Molde. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Eliteserien - Norway

Lillestrøm2

Molde2

Winner

X2 67%

BTTS*

Yes 70%

Correct Score

1-2 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 71%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 59%

· FT

Eliteserien - Norway

Lillestrøm2

Molde2

Winner

X2 67%

BTTS*

Yes 70%

Correct Score

1-2 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 71%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 59%

Full Time

133%

X22%

245%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	12%	88%	29%	71%	41%	59%	68%	32%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	12%	88%	29%	71%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	41%	59%	68%	32%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	29%	71%	56%	44%	79%	21%	91%	9%
	21%	79%	46%	54%	70%	30%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	29%	71%	56%	44%
	21%	79%	46%	54%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	79%	21%	91%	9%
	70%	30%	87%	13%

1st Half

127%

X35%

238%

1st Score

141%

X3%

257%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

29%

1-1

19%

X-X

12%

X-2

12%

X-1

11%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-2

8.7%

1-1

8.6%

2-2

7.6%

2-1

7.2%

1-3

5.7%

0-1

5.1%

0-2

5.0%

2-3

4.7%

1-0

4.4%

3-1

3.8%

3-2

3.7%

2-0

3.6%

0-3

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Lillestrøm vs Molde — Recent Form

Molde have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table. Lillestrøm have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 6th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Molde

Lillestrøm

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Molde

3/5

Lillestrøm

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Molde

5/5

Lillestrøm

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Molde

5/5

Lillestrøm

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Molde

1/5

Lillestrøm

3/5

First Half Result

Molde

3/5

Lillestrøm

2/5

Correct Score

Molde

0/5

Lillestrøm

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Brann – Molde prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).