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Dukagjini vs Lugano 1-5 Score & Prediction Review

Europa Conference League - Season 2026/2027 2nd Qualifying Round (Qualifying)

Fair result
DukagjiniDukagjini

1–5

LuganoLugano
1.0Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Dukagjini would usually take 1.1 points and Lugano 1.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Lugano.

Dukagjini −1.1 pts vs chancesLugano +1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Dukagjini vs Lugano stats: how the match was played

Europa Conference League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Lugano had clearly more shots on target

Dukagjini

Lugano

4

Shots on target

7

2

Big chances

4

1

Corners

5

0

Yellow cards

0

37%

Possession

63%

The match between Dukagjini and Lugano ended 1-5. Our AI model correctly predicted an Lugano win with 59% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Getafe – Lugano prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

Dukagjini vs Lugano — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa Conference League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lugano to win

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 1,797 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 6,484 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,185 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 68%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,982 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lugano ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 43%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 6,717 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Dukagjini Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Dukagjini 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 78%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 845 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Lugano Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lugano 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 1,011 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Dukagjini vs Lugano 1-5 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Dukagjini vs Lugano. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Europa Conference League - Europe
DukagjiniDukagjini1
LuganoLugano5

Winner

2 59%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

0-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

Full Time

120%
X22%
259%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT23%77%46%54%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT58%42%80%20%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Dukagjini46%54%78%22%
Lugano18%82%46%55%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Dukagjini94%6%98%2%
Lugano71%29%86%14%

1st Half

115%
X41%
243%

1st Score

129%
X6%
265%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

41%

X-2

20%

X-X

14%

1-1

7%

X-1

7%

1-X

4%

2-X

4%

1-2

3%

2-1

1%

Correct Score

0-1

10.8%

1-1

10.4%

0-2

9.8%

1-2

9.5%

0-3

6.3%

0-0

6.2%

1-3

5.9%

1-0

5.8%

2-1

5.0%

2-2

4.4%

2-0

3.1%

2-3

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Getafe – Lugano prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

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