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Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta

Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Europa Conference League - Season 2026/2027 Play-offs (Qualifying)

Fair result

Hapoel Tel Aviv

0–1

Atalanta

0.9Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Hapoel Tel Aviv would usually take 1.0 points and Atalanta 1.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Atalanta.

Hapoel Tel Aviv −1.0 pts vs chancesAtalanta +1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta stats: how the match was played

Europa Conference League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Hapoel Tel Aviv

Atalanta

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

50%

Possession

50%

The match between Hapoel Tel Aviv and Atalanta ended 0-1. Our AI model correctly predicted an Atalanta win with 45% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Ajax – Atalanta prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa Conference League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atalanta to win

Correct

Our model 45%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: No, not both.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 75%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Atalanta ahead at half-time.

Our model 45%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Hapoel Tel Aviv Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hapoel Tel Aviv 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 72%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 1,588 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Atalanta Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atalanta 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Atalanta 2+ goals.

Our model 60%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 632 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.7% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Europa Conference League - Europe

Hapoel Tel Aviv0

Atalanta1

Winner

X2 71%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

· FT

Europa Conference League - Europe

Hapoel Tel Aviv0

Atalanta1

Winner

X2 71%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

129%

X26%

245%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%	65%	35%	86%	14%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	65%	35%	86%	14%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	38%	62%	72%	28%	91%	9%	97%	3%
	26%	74%	59%	41%	82%	18%	94%	6%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	38%	62%	72%	28%
	26%	74%	59%	41%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	91%	9%	97%	3%
	82%	18%	94%	6%

1st Half

122%

X45%

233%

1st Score

139%

X8%

253%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

26%

X-X

16%

X-2

16%

1-1

15%

X-1

13%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

12.4%

0-1

11.5%

1-0

8.8%

1-2

8.7%

0-0

8.3%

0-2

7.9%

2-1

6.9%

2-0

4.8%

2-2

4.7%

1-3

4.3%

0-3

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Ajax – Atalanta prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).