2. Leagues
  3. Europa Conference League
  4. Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Lugano

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Lugano 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Europa Conference League - Season 2026/2027 Play-offs (Qualifying)

Robbed

Maccabi Tel Aviv drew despite more chances

Maccabi Tel AvivMaccabi Tel Aviv

1–1

LuganoLugano
2.8Chances (xG)0.7

On these chances Maccabi Tel Aviv would usually take 2.6 points and Lugano 0.3; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Maccabi Tel Aviv.

Maccabi Tel Aviv −1.5 pts vs chancesLugano +0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Lugano stats: how the match was played

Europa Conference League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Maccabi Tel Aviv had more than twice the shots on target

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Lugano

7

Shots on target

2

4

Big chances

0

6

Corners

4

1

Yellow cards

4

0

Red cards

1

59%

Possession

42%

The match between Maccabi Tel Aviv and Lugano ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted an Lugano win at 46% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Getafe – Lugano prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Lugano — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa Conference League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lugano to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Maccabi Tel Aviv to win.

Our model 46%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 380 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 27.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.8% than to our 45–50%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 61%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 38%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,043 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Maccabi Tel Aviv Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Maccabi Tel Aviv 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Lugano Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lugano 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Lugano 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Lugano. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Europa Conference League - Europe
Maccabi Tel AvivMaccabi Tel Aviv1
LuganoLugano1

Winner

X2 69%

BTTS*

Yes 58%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Full Time

131%
X23%
246%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT19%81%39%61%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT52%48%77%23%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Maccabi Tel Aviv33%67%63%37%
Lugano23%77%51%49%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Maccabi Tel Aviv84%16%95%5%
Lugano76%24%90%10%

1st Half

126%
X38%
236%

1st Score

141%
X5%
254%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

31%

1-1

18%

X-X

13%

X-2

13%

X-1

11%

2-X

5%

1-X

4%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

9.9%

1-2

9.2%

0-1

7.8%

2-1

7.1%

0-2

6.5%

2-2

6.2%

1-0

6.1%

0-0

5.1%

1-3

5.0%

2-0

4.1%

0-3

3.9%

2-3

3.5%

3-1

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Getafe – Lugano prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

Recommended Partners

Live Football Scores