FC Twente vs Thun 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Europa Conference League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 1)

Fair result

FC Twente

1–0

Thun

2.1Chances (xG)0.4

On these chances FC Twente would usually take 2.5 points and Thun 0.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: FC Twente.

FC Twente +0.5 pts vs chancesThun −0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

FC Twente vs Thun stats: how the match was played

Europa Conference League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

FC Twente had more than twice the shots on target

FC Twente

Thun

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

73%

Possession

27%

The match between FC Twente and Thun ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a FC Twente win with 60% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Thun – Hearts prediction & betting tips (Nov 5, 2026).

FC Twente vs Thun — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa Conference League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

FC Twente to win

Correct

Our model 60%Bookmakers 84%

Our track record

In 1,805 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 61%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 69%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 1,162 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 187 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 47.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.5% than to our 50–55%.

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

FC Twente ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 46%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 4,281 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

FC Twente Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

FC Twente 2+ goals

Wrong

Our model 64%Bookmakers 86%

Our track record

In 3,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Thun Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Thun 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 71%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,367 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

FC Twente vs Thun 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for FC Twente vs Thun. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Europa Conference League - Europe

FC Twente1

Thun0

Winner

1 60%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 69%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 57%

· FT

Europa Conference League - Europe

FC Twente1

Thun0

Winner

1 60%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 69%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 57%

Full Time

160%

X20%

220%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	13%	87%	31%	69%	43%	57%	67%	33%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	13%	87%	31%	69%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	43%	57%	67%	33%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	14%	86%	36%	64%	61%	39%	79%	21%
	43%	57%	71%	29%	88%	12%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	14%	86%	36%	64%
	43%	57%	71%	29%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	61%	39%	79%	21%
	88%	12%	96%	4%

1st Half

146%

X36%

218%

1st Score

164%

X3%

233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

41%

X-1

19%

2-2

11%

X-X

10%

X-2

2-X

1-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

2-1

10.1%

1-1

8.0%

2-0

7.1%

1-0

6.3%

3-1

6.1%

2-2

5.9%

3-0

5.7%

1-2

5.5%

3-2

4.0%

0-1

3.6%

0-0

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

FC Twente vs Thun — Recent Form

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

FC Twente

2/5

Thun

2/2

Both Teams to Score

FC Twente

3/5

Thun

0/2

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

FC Twente

3/5

Thun

0/2

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

FC Twente

2/5

Thun

2/2

First Half Result

FC Twente

1/5

Thun

0/2

Correct Score

FC Twente

0/5

Thun

0/2

correct predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Thun – Hearts prediction & betting tips (Nov 5, 2026).