Atalanta vs Paphos 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

Europa Conference League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 1)

Fair result

Atalanta

3–1

Paphos

2.9Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Atalanta would usually take 2.4 points and Paphos 0.5; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Atalanta.

Atalanta +0.6 pts vs chancesPaphos −0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Atalanta vs Paphos stats: how the match was played

Europa Conference League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Atalanta had clearly more shots on target

Atalanta

Paphos

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

65%

Possession

35%

The match between Atalanta and Paphos ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Atalanta win with 55% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atalanta – Kairat prediction & betting tips (Nov 5, 2026).

Atalanta vs Paphos — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa Conference League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atalanta to win

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 1,805 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 3,101 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 32%

Our track record

In 2,848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 74%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 4,543 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Atalanta ahead at half-time.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 2,263 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Atalanta Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atalanta 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Atalanta 2+ goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 25%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Paphos Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Paphos 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 78%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 2,569 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.7% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Atalanta vs Paphos 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Atalanta vs Paphos. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Europa Conference League - Europe

Atalanta3

Paphos1

Winner

1 55%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

· FT

Europa Conference League - Europe

Atalanta3

Paphos1

Winner

1 55%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

155%

X24%

221%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	28%	72%	52%	48%	64%	36%	84%	16%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	28%	72%	52%	48%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	64%	36%	84%	16%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	21%	79%	52%	48%	77%	23%	91%	9%
	46%	54%	78%	22%	93%	7%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	21%	79%	52%	48%
	46%	54%	78%	22%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	77%	23%	91%	9%
	93%	7%	98%	2%

1st Half

139%

X40%

220%

1st Score

159%

X8%

233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

30%

X-1

17%

X-X

16%

2-2

15%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

12.8%

1-1

11.0%

2-0

10.3%

2-1

9.6%

0-0

8.0%

0-1

6.9%

3-0

5.9%

1-2

5.1%

3-1

4.9%

2-2

4.0%

0-2

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Atalanta vs Paphos — Recent Form

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Atalanta

3/4

Paphos

2/4

Both Teams to Score

Atalanta

1/4

Paphos

2/4

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Atalanta

2/4

Paphos

0/4

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Atalanta

3/4

Paphos

2/4

First Half Result

Atalanta

2/4

Paphos

3/4

Correct Score

Atalanta

0/4

Paphos

2/4

correct predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atalanta – Kairat prediction & betting tips (Nov 5, 2026).