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Sturm Graz vs Olympique Marseille

Sturm Graz vs Olympique Marseille 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Europa League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 3)

Fair result

Sturm Graz

1–0

Olympique Marseille

1.6Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Sturm Graz would usually take 1.7 points and Olympique Marseille 1.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Olympique Marseille.

Sturm Graz +1.3 pts vs chancesOlympique Marseille −1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Sturm Graz vs Olympique Marseille stats: how the match was played

Europa League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Sturm Graz had more than twice the shots on target

Sturm Graz

Olympique Marseille

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

29%

Possession

71%

The match between Sturm Graz and Olympique Marseille ended 1-0. Our AI model predicted an Olympique Marseille win at 41% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

Sturm Graz vs Olympique Marseille — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Olympique Marseille to win

Wrong

Our model 41%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 3,613 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 59%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 60%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 3,100 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 2,412 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 36%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 1,963 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.6% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Sturm Graz Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sturm Graz 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,497 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.9% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Olympique Marseille Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Olympique Marseille 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Olympique Marseille 2+ goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 661 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Sturm Graz vs Olympique Marseille 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Sturm Graz vs Olympique Marseille. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Europa League - Europe

Sturm Graz1

Olympique Marseille0

Winner

X2 64%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

· FT

Europa League - Europe

Sturm Graz1

Olympique Marseille0

Winner

X2 64%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Full Time

136%

X23%

241%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	18%	82%	40%	60%	52%	48%	76%	24%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	18%	82%	40%	60%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	52%	48%	76%	24%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	29%	71%	59%	41%	82%	18%	93%	7%
	26%	74%	55%	45%	79%	21%	91%	9%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	29%	71%	59%	41%
	26%	74%	55%	45%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	82%	18%	93%	7%
	79%	21%	91%	9%

1st Half

128%

X36%

235%

1st Score

144%

X5%

251%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

28%

1-1

19%

X-2

13%

X-1

12%

X-X

12%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

10.3%

1-2

8.5%

2-1

7.9%

0-1

7.1%

1-0

6.8%

2-2

6.1%

0-2

5.8%

2-0

5.1%

0-0

4.5%

1-3

4.5%

3-1

3.7%

2-3

3.6%

0-3

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Sturm Graz vs Olympique Marseille — Recent Form

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Olympique Marseille

2/4

Sturm Graz

1/4

Both Teams to Score

Olympique Marseille

1/4

Sturm Graz

2/4

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Olympique Marseille

1/4

Sturm Graz

1/4

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Olympique Marseille

3/4

Sturm Graz

3/4

First Half Result

Olympique Marseille

2/4

Sturm Graz

1/4

Correct Score

Olympique Marseille

0/4

Sturm Graz

0/4

correct predictionwrong prediction