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Derry City vs CSKA Sofia 1-2 Score & Prediction Review
Europa League - Season 2026/2027 1st Qualifying Round (Qualifying)
Derry City vs CSKA Sofia stats: how the match was played
Europa League
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
CSKA Sofia had more than twice the shots on target
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
2
Shots on target
5
11
Corners
6
1
Yellow cards
4
Derry City vs CSKA Sofia — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Europa League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Derry City to win
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: CSKA Sofia to win.
Our track record
In 380 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 27.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.8% than to our 45–50%.
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: CSKA Sofia ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Derry City 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Our model’s pick
CSKA Sofia 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: CSKA Sofia 2+ goals.
Our track record
Too few similar matches in the last 12 months for a track record.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Derry City vs CSKA Sofia 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Derry City vs CSKA Sofia. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Derry City1
CSKA Sofia2Winner
1X 73%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
Derry City1CSKA Sofia2Winner
1X 73%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 24% | 76% | 48% | 52% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 61% | 39% | 83% | 17% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23% | 77% | 54% | 46% |
 | 38% | 62% | 71% | 29% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 21% | 92% | 8% |
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
24%
2-2
18%
X-1
17%
X-X
16%
X-2
11%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.3%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
8.3%
0-1
7.2%
0-0
6.9%
1-2
6.8%
2-2
5.0%
3-1
4.9%
3-0
4.5%
0-2
4.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score