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Víkingur Reykjavík vs Thun 3-2 Score & Prediction Review

Europa League - Season 2026/2027 3rd Qualifying Round (Qualifying)

Fair result
Víkingur ReykjavíkVíkingur Reykjavík

3–2

ThunThun
1.5Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Víkingur Reykjavík would usually take 1.6 points and Thun 1.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Víkingur Reykjavík.

Víkingur Reykjavík +1.4 pts vs chancesThun −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Víkingur Reykjavík vs Thun stats: how the match was played

Europa League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Víkingur Reykjavík had clearly more shots on target

Víkingur Reykjavík

Thun

7

Shots on target

5

3

Big chances

2

2

Corners

3

4

Yellow cards

4

58%

Possession

43%

The match between Víkingur Reykjavík and Thun ended 3-2. Our AI model correctly predicted a Víkingur Reykjavík win with 56% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Víkingur Reykjavík vs Thun — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Víkingur Reykjavík to win

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 68%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 286 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Víkingur Reykjavík ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.

Our model 44%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Víkingur Reykjavík Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Víkingur Reykjavík 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Thun Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Thun 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 68%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Víkingur Reykjavík vs Thun 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Víkingur Reykjavík vs Thun. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Europa League - Europe
Víkingur ReykjavíkVíkingur Reykjavík3
ThunThun2

Winner

1 56%

BTTS*

Yes 63%

Correct Score

2-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 68%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 56%

Full Time

156%
X20%
223%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT14%86%32%68%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT44%56%69%31%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Víkingur Reykjavík15%85%38%62%
Thun39%61%68%32%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Víkingur Reykjavík64%36%82%18%
Thun86%14%95%5%

1st Half

144%
X33%
223%

1st Score

162%
X3%
235%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

40%

X-1

17%

2-2

11%

X-X

9%

X-2

6%

2-1

5%

2-X

5%

1-X

4%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

2-1

9.4%

1-1

8.5%

2-0

7.1%

1-0

6.4%

3-1

6.4%

2-2

6.2%

1-2

5.7%

3-0

5.4%

3-2

4.3%

0-1

4.0%

0-0

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

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